The Toronto Maple Leafs have had one of the wildest goaltending seasons in recent memory. They are one of just two teams who’ve had three different goalies play 20 or more games, waived their season starter less than three months into the season, and have carried three goalies on the roster since Feb. 29.
It’s been an absolute roller coaster. At separate points of the season, fans have thought either Ilya Samsonov, Joseph Woll, or Martin Jones deserved a chance to start Game 1 of the 2024 NHL Playoffs. Now with just 11 games to go until the puck drops for the postseason, it’s still not clear who will get the nod.
We can rule out Martin Jones—he hasn’t played since Woll got back and is clearly number three on the depth chart—but with a run of good play to end the year Samsonov or Woll could steal the starting job.
It’s been a tale of two seasons for both of them, so let’s compare their years so far.
Woll looked like the clear choice until his injury
On the surface, Woll’s season looks a lot better than Samsonov’s. According to MoneyPuck, he sits at 7.2 goals saved above expected and 0.35 GSAx per 60 minutes. Compare that to Samsonov’s -9.1 and -0.3, respectively, and you’d think the Leafs would be crazy to not start Woll in Game 1.
If Woll hadn’t suffered a high-ankle sprain on December 7, he probably would be locked in as the starter, but he missed almost three months with the injury and has yet to find his groove since coming back.
According to Evolving-Hockey, when Woll went down with the injury, he’d played 15 games (five more than Samsonov) and had saved almost nine goals above expected. He looked like one of the best goalies in the league, and had all but stolen the starter’s job.
Since he’s been back, though, he’s looked inconsistent. In Sunday’s 2–1 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes, he was fantastic. Woll stopped 41 of 43 shots and stopped 2.5 GSAx.
But heading into that game, he was rocking a .879 SV% in his first four games back. In Tuesday’s loss to the New Jersey Devils, he made just 19 saves on 24 shots.
If Woll can find his form again, he’s clearly the Leafs’ best goalie. For a stretch earlier in the year, he was in the Vezina conversation. But that’s a big if, especially for a guy who’s only played 32 regular season games.
Samsonov has bounced back nicely
As we discussed before, Samsonov was waived and went unclaimed in late December. There was no doubt about why, he was one of the worst goalies in the league up until that point.
In his first 15 appearances, he put up an .862 SV% and -12.5 GSAx per Evolving-Hockey. There’s no arguing he was costing the Leafs game after game. The team lost trust in him, so he was sent down. And without even playing a game in the AHL, he was called back up 10 days later.
Samsonov has played 19 games since returning and has an impressive 7.5 GSAx since. He still sits at -5 GSAx on the year, but his SV% is getting closer to starting with a nine and at this point the Leafs have to ride the hot hand.
I think goalie wins are a useless stat, but somehow even with the putrid start to the year, Samsonov has a record of 19–6–7.
He’s had a couple injury scares, but if the playoffs started today, I’d guess he would be in net. Then again it’s really hard to say.
Comparing their numbers
Thanks to MoneyPuck, we can see some interesting numbers to compare the two. Take a look:
| Rebounds Per Save | xHigh-Danger SV% | High-Danger SV% | xMedium-Danger SV% | Medium Danger SV% | PK GSAx/60 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll | 0.065 | .677 | .790 | .878 | .897 | 1.129 |
| Ilya Samsonov | 0.053 | .683 | .739 | .878 | .844 | -1.401 |
Some of the biggest differences between the two come on the penalty kill.
It’s cliche but true: your most important penalty killer is your goalie. And while Woll seems to step up with a man disadvantage, Samsonov stumbles. For the worst penalty-killing team currently in a playoff spot, whoever is in net will need to bail them out in the postseason.
They are also both very good high-danger goalies. This is consistent with last year, too, where Samsonov was one of the best at stopping high-danger chances in the league, and Woll was just as impressive in a much smaller sample.
What’s set Woll apart, at least this year, is his ability to stop medium-danger chances, while Samsonov has struggled.
This is new for Samsonov, who had a .927 SV% on medium-danger chances last year.
Who passes the eye test, and what comes next
The two play completely different ways, which makes comparing them really hard. Samsonov is super athletic, but moves around so much that he frequently loses his net or overcommits.
On the other hand, Woll uses his frame more, moves around less and generally looks a lot calmer.
When I watch them, I’m a lot more comfortable with Woll in net. But I also know Samsonov’s athleticism is a huge reason he’s so good at making high-danger saves. He can fly from post to post, while Woll has a much harder time recovering if he finds himself out of position.
As for the Game 1 starter, I genuinely have no idea, and I don’t think the Leafs organization does either. The two should split the net the rest of the way, and Sheldon Keefe should use whoever plays better down the stretch.
The advantage of not having a set 1A is that there will be a short leash for whoever starts. It might take one bad game for Keefe to switch up his starters, which means both will have a chance to prove themselves.
Either way, chances are the Leafs have the goaltending disadvantage in their first-round matchup, whether it be against Sergei Bobrovsky or Jeremy Swaymam and Linus Ullmark. But Woll and Samsonov have both shown flashes this year, and I wouldn’t be shocked if one of them carried the Leafs on a deep playoff run.
