The Leafs have a lot of decisions to make this offseason, and the pressure to improve the team is ever-present. Stuck in a nearly decade-long Groundhog Day, fans are left wondering how the Leafs might be better next season. With just over $16M available, and a number of roster spots to fill, finding the right balance of players and cost will be precarious.
The Leafs biggest looming issue over the course of the Matthews era has been the blueline. The team has done a decent job to cobble together some solid defence cores over the years, yet the formula has remained the same. Morgan Rielly has been the sole standout, the only defenceman with even long-shot Norris Trophy odds at the beginning of each season.
Among the avenues to improvement is the free agent market. Handedness is clearly a factor, as the Leafs do have a few more questions on the right side, but it is not everything. Play style is a factor as well, but truly, the Leafs should be looking for both offensive and defensive options. As the Leafs only have so much money, there are tiers of players that might be worth targeting as well. Let’s take a look at some of the options that might be available to the Leafs.
The left defence options
Top four
Zadorov checks a lot of boxes on what we expect Leafs GM Brad Treliving’s wish list to be. Zadorov has history with Treliving, who brought him to the Calgary Flames. At 6’6” Zadorov is a physical presence, but he is able to get up and down the ice, control gaps, and has some offensive skill to work with. At 29, Zadorov is playing the best hockey of his career, as he seems to have continued improving and adding to his game over the years.
Meanwhile, Brady Skjei has had a less linear career. At one point the smooth skating left shot was thought of as an untouchable piece of the New York Rangers blueline, perhaps one of the finest young defenceman of his time alongside the likes of Morgan Rielly. It seems his time had passed, too expensive for the Rangers to justify keeping. Moved to the Carolina Hurricanes, Skjei finds himself in position to earn a nice payday after rebuilding his league-wide esteem. Skjei has set new goal-scoring highs, scoring 18 and 13 goals over his past two seasons, but his defensive game is the main selling point. Skjei has the skating and positioning to control transition offensively and defensively.
These are both top four defencemen who will command a hefty contract with term. Naturally, there is risk that either will be able to hold up for at least five years, a term they are both likely to receive. Given their shared history, not to mention height, Treliving is more likely to be in on Zadorov. Both would be a factor on the penalty kill, with some potential as an option for a second power play unit.
The issue is that the cap hit that these players are likely to command will limit the Leafs options elsewhere. Both are rumoured to have outpriced themselves from their current teams. In a vacuum, they might be an upgrade, but as left shots, they might be a luxury the Leafs cannot afford. Given the issues on the right side, signing either might not be prudent. Both Zadorov and Skjei have played their best alongside stable defensive options, something the Leafs right side currently lacks.
Bottom four
Brendan Dillon is a prototypical defensive option, who might be closer to the tier above than the rest of this group, and might be compensated as such. With size and physicality, Dillon thrived in a Jets system that prioritized hard, simple plays from their blueline. At 33 Dillon is a bit older than Zadorov and Skjei, and there is a greater risk that his best is less sustainable at this point. His size and disposition are certainly reasons that Treliving would be considering him, and he would be a staple to the Leafs penalty kill.
Edmundson was acquired by the Leafs last season, and is a similar player to Dillon. At 30, Edmundson is a bit younger, and likely cheaper than Dillon. Edmundson might be the more likely to be signed by the Leafs, but neither are clear-cut upgrades given the personnel already on the team. Both are reasonable pieces to a strong blueline, but don’t move the needle as much as they complement an existing group.
Shayne Gostisbehere is the opposite, an offensive player who has often played on the right side. Gostisbehere has had wild ups and downs throughout his career, being placed and clearing waivers. Still, the Leafs did express interest in upgrading the skill on their back end, as they signed John Klingberg last season. Gostisbehere might be the Leafs top power play option, and would give them a shooting threat from the point.
A cheaper option might be former Leaf Gustafsson. A puck-moving specialist himself, Gustafsson was not able to work his way into the Leafs lineup much during the 2022–23 season. Still, Gustafsson authoured a nice 2023–24 season, playing on the New York Rangers third pairing. Despite their aptitudes, it is quite unlikely that the Leafs opt for a pure offensive role left shot.
Haydn Fleury represents a low-cost option, many of which will remain on the market. Giordano is much older, but should be thought of along the same lines, a depth option on the left side. The Leafs had a lot of success signing Simon Benoit last season, though he only became a UFA after the Anaheim Ducks decided to leave him unqualified as an RFA. Other younger players might yet become UFAs in the same manner, an avenue that the Leafs might pursue once again.
Most likely Treliving will look to continue reshaping the blueline to his liking, in search of length and strength, targeting a player who might be able to handle limited third pairing minutes and utility as a penalty killer. Look for a signing of this ilk to round out the Leafs depth, though a prospect like Mikko Kokkonen might insert themselves into the conversation.
Right defence options
The Leafs situation at right defence is much less set, as Conor Timmins is the only right shot with NHL experience who is under contract. Timothy Liljegren is an RFA, but his hold on a lineup spot has been tenuous at best during his time as a Leaf. In other words, there is no guarantee that the Leafs will bring Liljegren back for next season. Nicholas Mattinen is an interesting option, and Topi Niemela might be ready for a look in the NHL, but this hardly represents a championship plan at a position that has plagued the Leafs for years.
We should expect the Leafs to be aggressive in pursuing a stronger blueline, especially so at right defence. It is possible that a big splash is made, either with a high-profile acquisition, or even a pair of notable right shot defencemen brought in.
Top pairing
Montour has had his ups and downs throughout his career, but is hitting free agency in top form. Once a prized young piece of a talented Anaheim Ducks blueline, Montour struggled with the Buffalo Sabres, as did many during the Jack Eichel era. Montour has starred with the Florida Panthers on their back-to-back Eastern Conference champion teams, every bit as impactful as Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad, and the most offensively dynamic of the Panthers top defencemen. Montour does most of his best work with his skating, joining the rush, but he is a complete offensive player and a top power play option.
At 30, Montour still has some good hockey left. The price tag will likely be the highest among this year’s UFA defencemen, and the term will likely be the maximum of seven seasons. Montour might be able to live up to the first handful of seasons on this deal, but it is difficult to imagine him being just as effective as a 37-year-old. While much of the focus on improving the Leafs blueline is defensive in nature, adding a player of Montour’s quality would greatly improve the unit overall.
Tanev is the opposite, one of the best defensive defencemen in the NHL. He might be into his mid-30s, but he has still played tough against the likes of Jack Eichel and Nathan MacKinnon this playoffs. Tanev plays a rough-and-tumble style, blocking shots, clearing the net front, and breaking up cycles. He can still defend in transition as well, making him a very complete option as a defender. On top of this, Tanev is a strong breakout passer, setting him apart from other defensive henchmen. Tanev is the deluxe version of other such players, and would be instrumental in taking the Leafs penalty kill to the level necessary for true Stanley Cup contention.
Tanev will not get as many years on his deal as Montour given that he is 34. Montour will command a greater cap hit than Tanev. Tanev might be the more sensible signing for the Leafs given these facts, though he comes with a much greater injury risk given his age and play style.
Both defenders should be in high demand this offseason, and might be looking to stay with their current teams. As with any free agent, the player must also choose Toronto over other options that they might have. Even at an equal salary, there is absolutely no guarantee that either of these high-end defencemen will find their way into the Leafs.
Top four
These three players are not quite at the level of Montour and Tanev, but would still be massive upgrades for the Leafs. Though he recently fell out of favour, T.J. Brodie might have fit in this group when he signed with the Leafs, and did reasonably well to live up to his deal.
Pesce and DeMelo are more defensive options, and both have played meaningful minutes on strong teams recently. Both are quiet and steady, but have the strength to thrive in contested ice. Neither presents much offensive upside, but both would be fixtures on the penalty kill, and true upgrades to the Leafs top four. Of late, there might be some injury concerns with Pesce, though he has found a way to play a good chunk of games.
Roy might be the most intriguing of this group. Hidden away on a middling Los Angeles Kings team, Roy has consistently played well behind Drew Doughty. Roy has some size, but is more of an offensive player. The Kings have used a fairly strict system, their LDs standing firm at the defensive blueline, forcing dump-ins for their RDs to retrieve and transition up ice. Roy has done well handling the puck-moving responsibilities on a pairing with Vladislav Gavrikov the last two seasons.
Pesce might command the most term and dollars of this group, but the Leafs will have to be intentional about how much of each they offer these defencemen. The immediate impact will be noticeable, but the Leafs might be spinning their tires in the long run. A signing of one of these players would not be enough to change the Leafs fortunes on its own, but could be part of a more widespread retooling.
Top four?
While the big names get all the attention, this group of players might be the most interesting to contemplate for the Leafs. These players might not be thought of as top four options by all, but there is a real chance that they can outperform, or at least provide more value from a cap perspective, the likes of Pesce, Roy, and Demelo.
Walker and Carrier are on the smaller side, but are great skaters who can impact offensive and defensive transition. Both have had success deeper in lineups, but have played well enough to seem capable of more. Walker was a sought-after player at the trade deadline, a focus that might have pushed him up some rankings. Carrier is younger, and might be worthy of as much praise.
Signing either of these players would be bad news for Liljegren, who profiles similarly. Both will be more expensive than Liljegren, who has less leverage as an RFA. Walker and Carrier are good enough players to be worthy of a mention, but in reality, based on the Leafs current roster, cap space, and taste in defencemen are unlikely to be under much more consideration than that.
On the other hand, Chatfield and Desharnais are potential gems for the Leafs. Both are big bodies, defensively focused players who bloomed late. Their play has continued to improve each season, as they established themselves as legitimate NHLers thanks to their commitment to improving and embracing their role. For this reason, despite their age, both players’ best hockey might well still be ahead of them.
As defensive players, Chatfield and Desharnais would be great additions to the penalty kill. The Leafs are without any bonafide penalty killing right shots. Desharnais is particularly strong in this area. Though he is tall and strong, Desharnais has fantastic positioning, able to shut down the slot with his reach. Chatfield is more physical, and has more impressive skating skills.
Both Desharnais and Chatfield should be priority re-signings for their current teams, but neither are locked in yet. Without production or pedigree, there is a risk in signing these players, but the potential rewards are tantalizing. Especially if the Leafs are willing to offer an aggressive number of years, say at least four, the services of these players might be quite affordable. Desharnais and Chatfield might be able to outperform their contracts through their entirety, and the Leafs should investigate signing either or both.
Bottom four
Lyubushkin is the most known to Leaf fans among this group. Circumstantially, thanks to his handedness and chemistry with Morgan Rielly, Lyubushkin might be able to log a slightly bigger role on the Leafs than he would on most teams. Miller and Hakanpaa fit a similar role to Lyubushkin, perhaps at a smaller price point. Miller has authored superior flow of play stats, while Lyubushkin is the most physically inclined.
Because of their statures, neither Stecher nor Blankenburg are players we should expect Treliving to target, but their effectiveness is worth mentioning. Stecher is a strong defensive player who has bounced from team to team despite finding his way into playoff lineups. Blankenburg has shown flashes on a poor Columbus Blue Jackets team, though he has a more offensive disposition than Stecher.
Klingberg had an uninspiring season with the Leafs, and ultimately missed most of the season with injury. It has been a while since Klingberg was anywhere near his best, but he has played at a level as high as any free agent discussed in this piece. Clearly, the Leafs had hopes that Klingberg could regain this form, given his expensive deal with Toronto. Perhaps a healthy Klingberg would be a better bet, and other veterans such as Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Tyler Myers have had bounce-back seasons after being counted out. At the very least, the Leafs cannot afford to overspend on Klingberg for a second year in a row. He should be thought of as a third pairing specialist, and compensated as such.
Conclusion
Looking at the four teams involved in the Conference Finals this season, the biggest discrepancy with the Leafs roster is the quality of blueline. While there might be consternation surrounding less tangible areas the Leafs are perceived to lack, unequivocally the blueline needs to be upgraded in both the short and long term.
Free agency is often expensive, and it is uncommon that UFA deals age gracefully throughout the entirety of the term. The Leafs might be able to sign and afford two or three of the players discussed here, but the path to an elite blueline cannot be achieved by UFAs alone.
Even without a blockbuster trade of one of the “core four” the Leafs should be investigating trade options. While acquiring an established yet affordable talent, such as Rasmus Andersson or Jakob Chychrun would be helpful, the price might be too high. The high-risk/high-reward manoeuvre is to target a younger player who has fallen out of favour, trusting your pros scouts and development staff to get more out of them. This time last season, Pierre-Olivier Joseph and Philip Broberg might have been among those available, and might still be, but their stock has probably risen over the past year.
In the end, the Leafs should look to all avenues in improving their blueline, including draft picks, trades, signings, and internal development. The unrestricted free agent market will almost certainly be a piece of the puzzle, to what extent remains to be seen.
One Comment