Analyzing what the Toronto Maple Leafs defence could look like on opening night

When the Toronto Maple Leafs 2023–24 season came screeching to an end, much of the focus was on improving the team’s blueline. A long-standing issue, it is not a stretch to say that the Auston Matthews era Leafs have never had a league-wide top-10 defensive group. Though fans might have been hoping for more drastic change, the Leafs have tried their hand at improving their group overall. Let’s take a look at how the Leafs might line up their defence pairings in 2024–25, and if it might be enough to make a difference in the long run.

Distinctions

While the Leafs have boasted impressive goals-against results over the Matthews era, this should not be confused with an evaluation of the position group. The Leafs have consistently muddled in the middle of the league’s penalty killing efficiency as well. There have been some decent bluelines over the years, perhaps even some that were admirably cobbled together, greater than the sum of their parts.

Outside of the constant in Morgan Rielly, the Leafs have been able to get some good seasons out of top four level defencemen. What the team has not possessed is a player of that calibre who shoots right. Enter Chris Tanev.

Tanev routinely gets the most out of his defence partners, and is still in top form despite being in his mid-30s. Tanev’s contract is a bit longer than one might hope, but Tanev himself felt that last season was his best as a professional. If it’s any consolation, Chris Tanev’s brother Brandon Tanev lived up to a long deal of his own. Both brothers are impressive athletes.

At the very least Tanev would seem to make an ideal partner for Rielly. This might be the best Leafs defence pairing of the salary cap era. In theory, this duo could play more than 25 minutes a night come playoff time, buying the Leafs valuable strength atop the lineup. If Rielly and Tanev bring the best out of each other, the Leafs have only to find two reasonable pairings between the rest of their ample blueline options.

The truth is that the Leafs might find that another formation works best. In their run to the Western Conference Final last season, the Dallas Stars deployed Tanev alongside Esa Lindell, doubling down on defence for a true shutdown pairing. There are other questions further down the depth chart, but untangling the web of possibilities begins with finding where Tanev fits.

Finally, the situation on Jani Hakanpaa may or may not be complicated. Best guess is that he is signed, but injured to start the season. There is no clear timetable for his return, but if he is able to he will slot in nicely as a defensive option on the right side. Best served with limited minutes, Hakanpaa would be a good third pairing option beside a puck mover, perhaps Oliver Ekman-Larsson or Jake McCabe, and a second option on the penalty kill.

Rielly and Tanev together

As Craig Berube takes over coaching duties, any conventions used under past regimes might be challenged. We start with a formation that relies on some of those past conventions.

Rielly — Tanev

Ekman-Larsson — Liljegren

Benoit — McCabe

Again, the top pairing would be logging a ton of minutes within this context. Simon Benoit found great success alongside McCabe. The issues beyond this jump out, as Ekman-Larsson and Timothy Liljegren might be too one-dimensional a pairing to survive. While talented, both would prefer some in-zone defensive capabilities to withstand the various attacks league-wide. Switching McCabe and Ekman-Larsson might not do Liljegren any favours either. Perhaps any two of McCabe, Liljegren, and Ekman-Larsson on a pairing is not ideal.

Both Ekman-Larsson and McCabe are left shots who can play the right side. Playing both on their strong sides would almost certainly force Benoit out of the lineup, concerning given he is still one of the better in-zone defenders, read big and strong defencemen, the Leafs have.

Rielly and Tanev apart

Separating Rielly and Tanev means relying on depth, and perhaps stylistic comparability that is an equal source of limitations and opportunities. One option is a bit more unconventional, with one offensive pairing and one defensive pairing as specialists.

Rielly — Liljegren

McCabe — Tanev

Benoit — Ekman-Larsson

Rielly and Liljegren would indicate some level of growing trust between Berube and Liljegren’s defensive game. The duo would be deployed in as many offensive situations as possible.

Meanwhile, McCabe and Tanev form what is on paper the Leafs best possible defensive pairing. Absent an offensive force, this duo should be able to shut down elite opposition.

Ekman-Larsson can play his weak side, and would be a fitting partner for Benoit. If Benoit is able to show some growth this season, this pairing could end up being a very trustworthy third pairing, able to help the more circumstantial pairings above to be managed throughout the game.

Ekman-Larsson — Tanev

McCabe — Liljegren

Rielly — ???

As Tanev routinely brings out the best in his partners, any chance for Ekman-Larsson to regain his peak form lay with Tanev.

Though their results together were not fantastic last season, McCabe and Liljegren would both be forced to elevate their defensive games together. Though the pair has a lot of skills and some level of defensive capabilities, they might not have the muscle to break up cycles or clear the net front.

The Leafs have habitually left Rielly to carry whatever defensive defenceman they can trade some mid-round picks for at the deadline. Doing so again is status quo, but at the very least the Leafs would have a shot at three capable pairings.

Right side depth

Luckily, the Leafs have as many as four potential options on the right side. In essence, they might all be fighting for the same spot out of training camp, but chances are we should see a number of them throughout the season as the Leafs weather their schedule. The basis of such a formation might look something like this:

The incumbent scratch is Conor Timmins, though he is an interesting case. Once highly touted and since often injured, Timmins has had a tough road. In his time, he has shown a great deal of offensive ability, which is a plus on its own, but not necessarily what the Leafs are looking for. He does have some size, but has yet to show that he can be an effective defender or a part of a championship calibre penalty kill. Until such time, it might be impossible for Timmins to get in the same lineup as Liljegren.

Nicholas Mattinen is similar, and perhaps more of an unknown as well. Following a strange career path, Mattinen has built up enough of a resume to get a long look in training camp. Coming off of an MVP season in the DEL, Mattinen has some intriguing offensive upside as well. Mattinen is three inches taller than Timmins, and plays with more physicality. There is a chance that Mattinen is a capable defensive presence, making him something of an x-factor on this Leafs blueline.

Philippe Myers might be the safest bet to win the spot, with the most NHL experience of this group of right-handed depth options. Myers played well as a rotational substitute for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Myers has the size, strength, and skating to succeed, but has had trouble applying his traits effectively. In particular, Myers’ transition defending, decision-making, and consistency are cited as potential issues, but his injuries have not helped his cause either. Ekman-Larsson is a strong transition defender and a steady veteran presence who might be an ideal partner for Myers. At one point Myers was highly thought of, but his career high point in 2019–20 was a long time ago.

Any one of Timmins, Mattinen, or Myers sticking with the Leafs would be a huge boost. Individually the chances might be small, but together there is a non-zero chance the Leafs will find impact from the group.

Deeper still

To add on to this depth of viable NHL options, the Leafs have some players who might find themselves in games.

On the left side, the Leafs have Marshall Rifai and Dakota Mermis. Mermis has some NHL experience, but is likely destined for the Marlies. Rifai, however, is a bit younger and late developing. Appearing in two NHL games last season, Rifai is as ready as he will ever be for an extended look in the NHL. Rifai provides some skating and in-zone physicality that might be appreciated by Liljegren or Timmins.

Two 23-year-olds, left-shot Mikko Kokkonen and right-shot Topi Niemela will be looking to distinguish themselves in training camp as well. Both are under six feet, but bring a level of defensive ability to the ice. Niemela has a bit more upside with the puck, most of all in joining the rush, but both have been important defenders for the AHL Toronto Marlies. Earning and running with an NHL opportunity over the next two seasons will be incredibly important for both Kokkonen and Niemela.

In the same age group is our number nine prospect Cade Webber, a big defensive defenceman with some skating ability, but without any pro experience, Webber might be a long shot.

Training camp battle royale

Tanev and Rielly are the class of the group, comfortably top four, if not top pairing defencemen. McCabe, Ekman-Larsson, and Liljegren are comfortably top six, if not top four level defencemen. While trades are certainly still a possibility, there is enough depth that further signings or PTOs might be overkill. By talent alone there might be eight defencemen going for one spot in the Leafs gameday lineup, not even counting Hakanpaa.

From afar it is impossible to say who might come out with the job, but training camp might provide an interesting opportunity to try to spread the group to even footing. The Leafs might try to gauge the group with stylistically compatible partners, letting the quality of each player come out in the process.

Rielly — Tanev

McCabe — Mattinen

Ekman-Larsson — Myers

Benoit — Niemela

Rifai — Liljegren

Kokkonen — Timmins

Mermis — ???

Webber — ???

To drive the shape of the Leafs depth home, this might be one top pairing followed by five capable third pairings. It might even be difficult to rank them in order of quality.

There are already a lot of players to sort through, but the Leafs might offer some veterans PTOs. In particular, there are some younger right-shot defencemen that might have something upside. Gustav Lindstrom showed some sign of NHL viability over the years, last season splitting time between the Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens. Simon Johansson, older brother of Leafs 2024 draftee Victor Johansson, might be a fit on the right side as well. While there might be merit to their abilities, one must question if the Leafs would be upgrading their group or simply taking ice time away from them.

As usual, some of Berube’s former players might get looks. Despite both being left shots, Robert Bortuzzo and Marco Scandella are potential candidates for PTOs come training camp as well. Their desire to upgrade the penalty kill is well founded, and either veteran might still be a hope.

The long game

As a whole, the Leafs have a lot of capable defencemen under contract. The team was forced to reach deep at times last season, and should feel comfortable doing so once again if needed. There is still a gap between the Leafs and the better bluelines in the league. The Leafs do have some internal candidates who might tip the scales in the short term, but the mix is a bit inelegant. As usual, this hole is most jarring on the right side, but there is some hope that a second penalty killing option can present itself behind Tanev.

If the Leafs want to bridge that gap they must strike while Rielly and Tanev are still playing at a high level, which means finding a way to add a meaningful defenceman before 2024 top pick Ben Danford comes into his own. While a right shot would be preferable, adding any high-quality defensive defenceman would go a long way. Regardless of what the Leafs decide to trade away in the future, the top priority should still be adding to the long-term upside of this blueline.

Potential movement

Short of a high-end addition, the best-case scenario would be some major steps forward and symbiotic pairing for multiple younger Leafs. There are a lot of players who might be able to make a jump, asserting themselves at a higher level. While the roster may not seem upgraded at this point in time, the Leafs blueline has a significant degree of upward mobility. If one or two of these defencemen take a leap forward in effectiveness, the Leafs blueline could start pushing up the league-wide rankings.

This is especially true for Liljegren, who is without a clear place on this blueline. Liljegren is at the cusp of something more, and further development would make him an important piece of the Leafs top four. On the other hand, the Leafs have a great deal of internal competition beneath Liljegren. If he stagnates he might find himself pushed out. By the end of his current contract the Leafs should know the truth, either a core piece or moved on from.