This has been a very decent start to the season for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Through five games, the team is 3–2–0, and while a 0.600 win percentage isn’t outstanding, the team has shown real resolve, grit, and tenacity this season- something that has been sorely missing in seasons past.
However, hockey games are more than just a coin flip. The underlying numbers often point to how the team may do in the coming games. Let’s take a look at how the Leafs look thus far.
Shot attempts
With the Core Four, the Leafs are expected to outshoot their opponents night in and night out, but limiting shot attempts against them has not always been their strong suit. However, this season has been off to a decent start. The team has controlled the shot attempts share at 5v5, with 52.0% of shots at the net coming from the boys in blue according to Natural Stat Trick. Ironically, the only games they did not control in this area were the wins against the Pittsburgh Penguins and Los Angeles Kings.
Shooting the puck at the net is one thing, but getting quality looks is a completely different thing. Thankfully, the Leafs have looked good here too. The team has controlled the scoring chances category so far this season with an even 53% at 5v5. Even with high-danger chances, the Leafs have been the better team at 5v5 so far this season with a 61.8%. The only game that they were underwater was in the Kings game, where they allowed 12 high-danger chances against at 5v5, but somehow won 6–2.
Expected goals for
Expected goals for is an interesting metric that accounts for the number of goals a team should score given a combination of the likelihood of all of their chances in a game or series of games. Taken as a percentage, it shows the share of goals scored in a game that one team should have.
The Leafs have looked good here. Not as good as other categories, but should have scored 12 goals to the 10.5 they should have conceded at 5v5 so far this year. The team has been bang on, scoring 12 goals so far this year, but have gotten some outstanding goaltending at 5v5, allowing just five goals in five games. This is good for the best in the league so far this season.
Looking at individual numbers
With the amount of offensive talent that the team has, they should push harder to create chances up front. Auston Matthews has found the back of the net twice and added two helpers, while also leading the team in shot attempts so far with 34. However, the rest of the team lags behind. William Nylander has 19, Mitch Marner has half as many as Matthews with 17, and John Tavares sits quite far back with just nine through five games.
Matthews also leads the way in scoring chances and high-danger chances, with Nylander not far behind, but it is concerning that Tavares has just six scoring chances this season at 5v5 and only four high-danger chances. Perhaps worse, Marner has zero high-danger chances this season at 5v5. Tavares sees a massive boost if you look at all situations, jumping up to third on the team with 15 scoring chances and 12 high-danger looks, but Marner hasn’t seen the same, with just two more scoring chances and two more high-danger chances.
The one other player who has looked fantastic both on the ice and analytically is Matthew Knies, who has the second most scoring chances and high-danger chances on the team with 14 and 10 respectively at 5v5. This holds true in all situations with 18 and 13 respectively. What a find he has been for the Leafs.
What to expect going forward
Overall, this has been a very fine start to the season. They have been far from awful, but have some cleaning up to do as the season goes on.
The team has allowed 11 total goals against, three on the penalty kill and three at 4v4 or 3v3 to go along with the five they allowed at 5v5. This goals share is good for seventh in the league, which is wonderful, but their expected goals share so far this season is 18th, which points to a potential dropoff. The Leafs have been relying on Anthony Stolarz and Dennis Hildeby so far this season, and both have been great, but the team will need them to continue to be outstanding or work harder defensively to limit the chances that they are facing.
The team has a lot of talent on it and these numbers should start to look better as the season wears on. The season is still young and there is nothing really to worry about as of yet. As much as we could ask for these numbers to be a bit more reflective of the sheer amount of talent on the roster, panic buttons shouldn’t be going off quite yet in Leafs World.
