Way back when the Toronto Maple Leafs signed T.J. Brodie, the goal was to get a defensive-minded, shutdown blueliner to anchor a struggling defence.
Brodie did his job, mostly paired with Morgan Rielly, but Toronto still never really had that shutdown pair, a pair that you can trust against just about anyone.
And when the Leafs signed Chris Tanev last summer, there was a similar goal. Play with Rielly, create a reliable defensive No. 1 pair, and anchor the whole defensive corps.
Well, he’s not playing with Rielly. But Tanev is now a part of the best defensive pair in the entire NHL.
So, how did we get here?
A little on Tanev
When Brad Treliving traded for Tanev’s rights at the 2024 NHL Draft, Leafs fans knew what they were getting. One of the league’s most prolific shot blockers, the shutdown defenceman has a reputation for being one of the best defensive players in the sport, suppressing chances with the best of them.
For the last six seasons, Tanev’s teams have easily won their 5v5 minutes in terms of expected goals, actual goals, and high-danger scoring chances, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Tanev completely shuts off the middle of the ice, consistently swatting passing attempts away and blocking any puck headed towards a dangerous area.
But he also makes every breakout look easy. His one-touch passes up the ice, and his ability to evade forecheckers without any issues allow the Leafs to exit the defensive zone more than they ever have in the Auston Matthews era.
Tanev is actually near the league lead in hits taken, but it doesn’t affect his puck moving ability. If the puck is on his stick, he’s making the right read and quickly moving it.
The contract may age like milk, but as of now, Tanev has been even better than advertised. The Leafs haven’t had a defenceman of his calibre since I don’t even know when.
His partner in crime
Kind of lost in Tanev’s success is the emergence of Jake McCabe. McCabe has always been good—Kyle Dubas sent a first and second-round pick to get him—but he has never been a true top-pairing guy. Until now. And he’s been rewarded with a long-term deal to stay in Toronto.
Unlike Tanev, McCabe throws the body around a ton. He uses his strength to absolutely smoke players flying through the neutral zone as well as shut down the cycle. His defensive instincts are still elite—he knows where to be at all times—but he goes about his business in a different way.
Sometimes, McCabe can get his wires crossed and sell out for a big hit, or go at someone after a whistle, but honestly, the Leafs need more guys like that.
He’s a bit of an animal, and you can tell he plays with a bit of anger when he’s out there. But it doesn’t stop him from playing an extremely entertaining, defensive brand of hockey that pairs perfectly with Tanev.
What happens when they are on the ice
Put simply, the other team doesn’t generate chances.
For any defensive pair that’s played at least 80 minutes together, the Tanev – McCabe pair is No.1 in the whole league in expected goals against per 60 minutes, according to MoneyPuck.
They have played over 221 minutes together, and they’ve given up 4.8 expected goals. That’s 1.3 against per 60 minutes. To put that into perspective, the best team in the league in terms of goals against sits at 2.33 a game.
No one else in the league suppresses chances like them, and it means the Leafs dominate their minutes when those two are on the ice. Toronto own over 60% of the expected goals when McCabe and Tanev play together.
In terms of actual results, the Leafs have won McCabe and Tanev’s minutes 10–4, giving up barely over a goal every 60 minutes.
Their 71.4% goal share sits third in the league of pairs who have played over 200 minutes together.
The funny thing is, they don’t suppress shots very well. The Leafs are actually being outshot with the pair out there, something that seems baffling given the expected goal numbers. But there’s a reason.
The formula
Even though they start in the defensive zone a ton, and get outshot, somehow McCabe and Tanev suppress chances better than anyone.
And that comes from completely eliminating the centre of the ice.
If a team wants to pepper Joseph Woll or Anthony Stolarz from the perimeter, the Leafs let them. These shots are low-danger and actually hurt your chances of winning.
So, especially with Tanev and McCabe on the ice, the goal is to force everything outside, eliminate second chances, and block everything.
Toronto has not been able to do this in the past. Rielly has always been part of the top pair, and he simply can’t play that well in his own zone. Now that the Leafs have two guys who can both shut down opponents in their own ways, it’s all they do.
It’s been too long without a true shutdown pair in Toronto, but those days are over.
The Tanev – McCabe pair is a true, playoff-calibre No. 1 pair, and it will be very fun to watch them go to work in the postseason this year. Hopefully it lasts for more than seven games.
