With Auston Matthews and Chris Tanev out of the lineup, the Leafs chances of winning are greatly diminished. Throw in an Anthony Stolarz injury and many would argue the team is without its best forward, best defenceman, and best goalie.
Now, Tanev seems to be back, but is one of the most selfless defenders out there. Add Jake McCabe to the mix, who seems like he gets a puck or stick to the face every game, and it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where a depth defenceman has to step up for the Leafs.
While the strength of the lineup is unequivocally compromised, the Leafs will have opportunities to batten down the hatches. The team as a whole will have to find ways to forge a stronger identity beneath their leaders. Of course in the big picture this will require scouts and management supplementing the roster, as well as coaches to make lineup adjustments. Still, the games are decided by the players, and this flurry of key injuries will thrust some Leafs into the spotlight.
Who might seize the chance before them? Let’s look into the depth chart to see who might be called upon to shine, even if only in the short term.
Forwards: Pontus Holmberg
Even with Matthews in the lineup the Leafs are looking for another centre. Ideally this player would be defensively responsible enough to entrust with a variety of wingers, including offensively focused players like Max Domi or Nicholas Robertson. At the same time, this player needs to be an offensive upgrade over David Kampf, who has had issues keeping up with these highly skilled linemates.
Enter Pontus Holmberg, who might fit the mould the Leafs require. Holmberg has good speed and agility, some level of puck skills, and most importantly plays the game honestly. While not the most physically imposing, Holmberg is willing to expend the effort to maintain proper positioning and battle in the tough areas. With an improving faceoff percentage in an expanded role this season, the former Toronto Marlies top centre is building up more trust down the middle.
There are doubts, of course. At 25 years old, Holmberg is a bit older than fans usually expect for improving players. He has had his chances, weaving in and out of the lineup the past three seasons, including some longer stretches out of favour for the lineup. Holmberg has never hit 10 goals or 20 points in an NHL season. Even this season started slowly, as Holmberg had one of the most lacklustre Octobers on the roster.
All the tools are there, and his teammates have often spoken highly of his skills and work ethic. Holmberg often has his struggles in the early season, saving his best work for later in the year. He has always been a later bloomer, and often the improvements are minute and incremental before a big jump forward. We are seeing some of those smaller improvements, and Holmberg might be close to a stronger foothold. Showing an obvious synergy with a linemate or two might be the only thing keeping Holmberg from a cemented place in the top-nine forward group. A pending RFA, Holmberg is likely to be good value on his next contract as well.
Longshots
Fraser Minten has continued to acquit himself nicely, nibbling away at a true NHL emergence. There have been clear signs that an NHL player is in there, which is a huge deal for the Leafs in the long term. In the short term, however, Minten could use some seasoning in the AHL. Still an AHL rookie, Minten should be given the chance to get a foothold as a professional before being entrusted with defensive responsibilities for an aspiring NHL contender. It might even be this spring that Minten is ready to take hold of that role, and having him as an option is a nice luxury, but this simply cannot be the first plan. Long term, Minten is a fantastic fit for the Leafs, both in skill set and in cap cost.
Calle Jarnkrok has not appeared at all this season, and so counting on a return is fool-hearted. Still, if Jarnkrok were able to play he would be an excellent centre option right now. It has been even longer since Jarnkrok played centre full-time, but he has filled the role on a deep Stanley Cup playoff run before. While not as physically imposing as Minten or as fast as Holmberg, Jarnkrok splits the difference in a meaningful way. Missing Jarnkrok is a blow, but a return to health might make for a solid stand-in as a deadline acquisition.
Bottom line
In the end, the Leafs might still want to be aggressive upgrading here, especially if Matthews is out long-term. Given the captain’s absence is now recurring, it might already be dire enough to do so. To begin, Holmberg will have to wrestle his way ahead of Kampf on the depth chart. Holmberg is running out of time as a young player who might have some upwards mobility in the lineup. This might not be his last chance at a top-nine role, but it is a good one. For what it is worth, Kampf is currently centring Bobby McMann and Max Pacioretty, a winger duo is exactly what complements Holmberg’s skills.
Brock Nelson or Yanni Gourde might be the highest-priced options, and the Leafs might have to put all the eggs in one basket to pry them away in a deadline deal. Requiring any other significant additions essentially takes them out of those markets, forcing them to explore cheaper and less certain options.
Defence: Conor Timmins
While this is still arguably the best Leafs blueline in the salary cap era, the balance is circumstantial. An injury to any of the top four, Morgan Rielly, Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, or Jake McCabe vastly diminishes the group. A strength by committee approach relies on depth, where Tanev joining Jani Hakanpaa on the injury report is troubling. Given that the right side depth is the issue at full health, these two absences strains the group as a whole.
Enter Conor Timmins. Similar to Holmberg, Timmins is a bit older than traditionally expected from a young player making stride up the lineup. Like Holmberg, there is some context that is required in charting a path forward. Timmins has missed a lot of time due to injury in his career which has impeded his progresss during some key developmental stages. A third similarity is their recognition at lower levels, Holmberg winning the SHL’s playoff MVP and Timmins winning the OHL’s defensive defenceman of the year.
In other words, Timmins has the ability to rival the Leafs top four in the near future. He has been earning more icetime at even strength and on the penalty kill, which is a great sign that he is earning trust. Timmins has obvious offensive skills, particularly as a passer, but his defensive game is continuing to grow. He might require a partner with some level physical presence at this point, but this is an area where he can still take strides.
Timmins will have the chance to grab a bigger role as the second most reliable right handed shot available. He will not, however play a similar role to Tanev if he becomes hurt again. McCabe and Ekman-Larsson might make for compatible partners at this time. If Timmins is able to thrive in a bigger role, he might earn a long-term spot with either player.
While the McCabe and Tanev pairing might be too strong defensively to break apart, if Timmins can excel in either spot it might improve the blueline as a whole. Reuniting the successful but short lived Rielly and Tanev combination becomes a viable option. Ekman-Larsson’s versatility all but ensures a rock solid defence corps, and allows the Leafs to target other areas on the trade market.
Long shots
Philippe Myers is fine as a fourth or fifth-string who can come in during a pinch. He might not be able to make a case for himself as a lineup regular at full health, but he can fill in adequately. Any hope would be that he plays better as he settles into the lineup. At this point, fans might not be too inspired by Myers, but what he gives the Leafs is quite valuable. He is a big body with attributes that help during in-zone defence, but he is clearly not a substitute for Tanev one for one. Some might argue that he can push the injured Hakanpaa outright, and that might be his opportunity at this time as well as his ceiling.
Matt Benning might be the less discussed player impacted by Tanev’s absence. A near afterthought in the Timothy Liljegren trade, Benning has a lot of NHL experience. He is coming off of hip surgery that ended his season last December, meaning he might still be rounding into form. At the very least Benning has played big roles on the penalty kill at the NHL level, and is a willing shot blocker. Injuries to two such players who shoot right ahead of him on the depth chart vaults him into consideration for a lineup spot with further injuries. Might he be able to pass Hakanpaa and Myers on the depth chart? Clearly, his importance has been elevated since joining the team.
Topi Niemela might only get get consideration if the Leafs need a puck mover on the right side, say if it was Timmins and Ekman-Larsson out instead of Tanev and Hakanpaa. Nicolas Mattinen likely needs a full AHL season before any legitimate NHL chance. Marshall Rifai and Mikko Kokkonen might be reasonable stop gaps on the left in short spurts. As far as long term upside, Cade Webber seems to be progressing well, and could challenge Simon Benoit for a spot next season.
Bottom line
Like Matthews, Hakanpaa now has a recurring injury which might cast doubt on his future availability. A Tanev injury puts a large strain on the rest of the blueline, essentially thrusting Myers or Benning into a regular spot. Any long term issue could severely impact the Leafs deadline spending, balancing other needs against their limited trade assets.
Right-handed defensive options are hard to come by, their cost higher than one might expect. Perhaps there are gambles available, like Vincent Desharnais who might have already fallen out of favour with the Vancouver Canucks, but more proven options will likely deny the Leafs the chance to trade for a centre.
Goalies: Matt Murray
With Anthony Stolarz out, Joseph Woll is certainly in a bigger spotlight. The Leafs tandem is quite strong, but injury prone. Ideally both goalies should set new career highs in games played this season, splitting the starts fairly evenly. Woll should continue to play such a role, remaining vital to the Leafs success. He and Stolarz should be neck and neck for the starting job on a season to season basis.
Instead, it will be Murray who is most relied upon to step up into a bigger role. Oft-injured and long injured, Murray has been off the radar for most, but is extremely experienced and qualified as a third-string option. While Murray’s work is not often pretty, he is effective in the biggest moments and gives the Leafs a steady chance to win each night.
Further down the lineup, Dennis Hildeby and Artur Akhtyamov are probably more exciting than Murray because of their long-term upside. Both still have something to prove in the AHL, and should be given the space to develop at their own pace. As of today either could feasibly win a game for the Leafs if required, but their results would likely be more jagged and inconsistent than Murray’s. The bright lights of a playoff game would only serve to amplify this fact. Another season or two of sustained AHL success would be a sound progression for both, and fans should feel good that a regular NHL contributor exists between them in the future.
We might only see a move to upgrade, or rather to reinforce the position if one of Stolarz, Woll, or Murray are out long term for the playoffs. Absent a true Vezina Trophy candidate, having this trio healthy is about as strong a goalie group as possible.
