Statistics have long been an important aspect of analyzing the NHL. In recent years, which stats used to measure and predict success have changed. Recently, expected goals stats are among the most cited to do so. Throughout the Auston Matthews era, the Toronto Maple Leafs have had strong results in the expected goals front. Often among the better performers offensively, in expected goals for, and around the middle of the pack in expected goals against, the Leafs have flirted with elite status on a yearly basis.
This season, with a new coach in Craig Berube, the expectation was that the Leafs would be improved defensively. While the team is performing well in terms of actual goals against, sitting about 12th in the league, the expected goals results are less promising. Are the Leafs simply getting better goaltending, or are these expected goals stats misleading? More importantly, are they playing well enough to warrant more playoff hopes?
Expected goals are an imperfect metric as a be-all and end-all
While numbers do not lie themselves, statistics can be presented in misleading ways. Expected goals are by no means a flawless metric, and using it as the only measurement is insufficient. Which data set is being used can make a difference as well, as this article will reference even strength stats from MoneyPuck.com. It can be a very useful tool with which to synthesize a viewpoint, however. Of course, it is the scoreboard that matters in the end, the actual goals for and against. Still, a look at past results league-wide might help understand the correlation.
During the 2023–24 season, both Stanley Cup finalists were top five in expected goal percentage. In 2022–23 the finalists were 12th and 15th. In 2021–22 the champion Colorado Avalanche were ninth, while the finalist Tampa Bay Lightning were 11th. Clearly, the best teams will perform well in most areas, but this is not a hard and fast correlation.
In past years the Leafs have been far more dominant in expected goals percentage, yet when it mattered most they fell short. Currently, the Leafs sit 16th in expected goals percentage, but fifth in actual goals percentage. While it would be nice for the process to be more convincing, the team is doing a better job winning games.
Context matters when looking at expected goals
The Leafs might have some excuses for their underwhelming expected goals percentage as well. Matthews was absent or not himself for much of the first half of the season. The Leafs were also missing nearly half their regular forward group earlier this season. To some extent, a better performance from here on out should be expected, especially if the team is improved at the deadline.
There are some very specific and important areas that the Leafs have already improved from past seasons. The team has been able to close out games. In the past 27 games that the Leafs entered the third period with a lead, they have come out victorious. On top of this, their penalty killing is as good as ever, over 80% for the first time in the Matthews era. These stats are much better indicators of improved defensive play under Berube. In the past, these areas have hurt the Leafs in the playoffs.
These are signs that the Leafs are playing a much more mature style—one that should translate to playoff success. This personality growth is evident elsewhere, bringing the Leafs their most consistent results to date. While there have been issues and bad moments, the beat marches on and the team keeps racking up points in the standings.
Personnel changes
While the coach and growing experience of the core are both certainly big pieces impacting this change, the roster is equipped with players that make this possible. Adding Chris Tanev is a big deal here, with him quickly becoming considered the Leafs’ best defenceman thanks to his ability to defend during in-zone situations. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Philippe Myers have been welcome additions as well. As a unit, these additions have brought the best out of Jake McCabe and Morgan Rielly.
This is mirrored up front with more power forwards in the lineup. Much as the defence is playing more straightforwardly, so too are the forwards. Against better teams, and in the relative lawlessness of the playoffs, the Leafs’ stylistic personnel changes should help them be more effective. When the game situation is obvious, like defending a lead or on the penalty kill, having players that excel in these roles is essential.
Goalies are a big piece of the puzzle here as well, and the Leafs have been blessed with strong performances virtually all season. The Leafs will need that to continue to reach their goals, but this is a symbiotic relationship. With improved defensive play, especially in key situations, the goalies will benefit. The goalies are not bailing out the team as much as they are a key part of the collective effort.
Things are going as expected
A look at some expected goals stats might send a chill down the spine of some Leafs fans. Perhaps some will even question if the team is worse than in seasons past. It would still be a good thing to see some improvement here as the playoffs approach, but to use it to suggest the team is not worthy of their record is not well founded.
A team is always bigger than any one individual. The work that Berube has done does not discredit former coach Sheldon Keefe, nor does the work of GM Brad Treliving discredit his predecessor. Both have seen success and failure and are by no means perfect. Still, their targeted efforts to improve the team are what the Leafs need to be more successful.
There is a clear hole on the roster for a defensive third line centre, where an upgrade would undoubtedly improve the team’s defensive results. Many are expecting the Leafs to trade for this prospective upgrade. An example from last season would be Adam Henrique, who went from the Anaheim Ducks to the Edmonton Oilers, and ultimately cost a first-round pick with 50% salary retention. The Leafs do have a few interesting auditions to consider first, as Jacob Quillan joins Fraser Minten as young players who could fit into the role. It might be a lot to expect either of Minten or Quillan to be ready for the role this season, but there is a chance for either to surprise.
