The NHL landscape was given a jolt last week as the Colorado Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes, and to an extent the Chicago Blackhawks, made a huge deal. With Mikko Rantanen shipped from the Avalanche to the Hurricanes one of the league’s best, and soon-to-be-highest-paid, players was dealt from one contender to another. The dust is still settling on the motivations and implications involved, but it does beg the age-old question: how does this affect the Leafs?
There are several poignant parallels to explore, most notably this between a pair of pending UFAs taken in the 2015 NHL Draft. Like Rantanen, Mitch Marner is one of the best wingers in the league. Like the Avalanche, the Leafs have a number of difficult decisions to make regarding star players. Let’s take a look at what the Avalanche and Hurricanes decision boiled down to and how that might inform the past, present, and future of the Leafs.
Why the Avalanche did it
A big motivation for the Avalanche comes down to the salary cap. Even though the cap is expected to rise sharply and consistently over the next few seasons, the Avs felt that signing Rantanen would hamstring their team in the future. With Cale Makar up for a new contract in two seasons after this (summer 2027), and Nathan MacKinnon already signed at $12.6M against the cap, the Avs would likely be tying up upwards of $40–$45M per season in their superstar trio.
Since winning the Stanley Cup the Avs have had their issues. Much of this comes down to depth, as key players at several positions have left while others have been otherwise unavailable, like captain Gabriel Landeskog due to injuries, and Valeri Nichushkin for a number of off-ice issues. As Stanley Cup champions the Avalanche seemed invincible, armed with a deep roster as well as some high-end prospects. Alas, the second-line centre spot vacated by Nazem Kadri’s UFA departure is left unfilled.
The Avs have been proactive on several fronts in efforts to shore up the roster, and trading Rantanen is a bold continuation of that process. For one, the Avs have called their shot with MacKenzie Blackwood in net. Once heralded a strong prospect, Blackwood has battled injuries and poor defensive teams over the balance of his career. Now, behind a stronger team, his skills are finally shining through. Like Logan Thompson, Blackwood might be named to Team Canada’s Four Nations Faceoff team if there were still a chance.
Still, through injuries and depth issues the team’s outer edges have been stretched. Oftentimes this season the Avs have relied on long-shot rookies or discount journeymen, hoping they punch above their weight. Jack Drury joins Juuso Parsinen as a young and versatile forward with flexibility as a centre.
Martin Necas is the real haul, having a career season. Necas does have another season after this one on his deal, and comes at a lower cap hit than Rantanen. With the savings, the Avs can afford to add another player closer to the deadline and comfortably reactivate Landeskog. If it all lines up, the Avs will have a deeper team.
Too many stars?
The dollar signs invested in a handful of top players should catch the eyes of Leafs fans. As a whole, it harkens similarities to the Kyle Dubas-era Leafs. The issues that the Avs have fallen into since their Stanley Cup have been familiar as well. Despite top talent, the Avs have not been able to get beyond the second round. The depth and the goaltending have been turnstiles. The middle class of the team is eroded. The main difference is of course that championship pedigree, but even the steel-tested Avalanche could not will these thinner rosters to victory.
The parallel with Marner and Rantanen is obvious, but it is also long-standing. Drafted the same night in 2015, both have authored similar regular season success throughout their careers. Both signed their current deals the same summer as well, as negotiations lingered for the outstanding RFAs along with Brayden Point. Marner’s no-trade clause and higher cap hit meant that something like this is no longer possible for the Leafs. There is essentially no chance a Marner trade occurs, and for all sides, the best case might be to wait until after the playoffs are over.
Can a team win with so much tied up in a few players? The Avalanche clearly thought no. Every team’s circumstances are different, and the chance to trade Rantanen is a bold one to get ahead of the cap crunch. This time around it is likely that Marner and Rantanen’s eventual cap hits are more similar than they ended up last time around. For the Leafs John Tavares’ next cap hit should be lessened, providing some relief even if Marner re-signs.
Canes justification
The Hurricanes side is a bit different. Perennially strong, the Canes seem to hit a wall deeper in the playoffs. Their strength is their depth, leading to elite talent being the most common culprit. Last season the team added Jake Guentzel, though adding Rantanen is on an entirely different level. Rantanen might well be the Canes best player, likely joining Sebastian Aho to form a true top line.
Adding Taylor Hall is another win, as the Canes pull off a rare manoeuvre in trading away their top scorer and coming out with a better forward group. The integrity of the lineup remains, and is improved even, while the talent has increased. The Canes are going for it all this season, and could be looking for more still. It is very possible that they are the perfect team to sign Rantanen long-term.
Willing to walk?
For the Leafs the most interesting angle here is how the Canes seem to view a worst-case scenario, that Rantanen leaves in free agency. Armed with a strong prospects system, the Canes are said to view the cap space as a tool regardless. If Rantanen leaves, the Canes will then have more flexibility to spend elsewhere, either through trade or free agency.
There is a possibility that Marner decides to leave the Leafs this summer. Even though he is a great player, it does not necessarily mean that the team will be worse off. They have less trade capital than the Canes, for certain, but the cap space alone could be distributed throughout the lineup. Canes GM Eric Tulsky is earning rave reviews for his work so far, a bold mindset that challenges convention to an extent.
What it all means
Just as the Avs clearly were faced with some difficult cap decisions, so too are the Canes. Despite an increase to the cap ceiling contending teams will have to be aggressive and intentional in maintaining their cap situations. In other words, the Leafs could learn that even if Marner leaves it does not mean the end of their hopes.
The negotiations have been much quieter than William Nylander’s was last season. This is probably for the best either way. From both sides having Marner hungry to prove himself this playoffs would be ideal. While the Leafs cannot trade Marner as the Avalanche did Rantanen, they should be prepared to save face. The goal should still be to sign Marner on the basis of keeping star players, though fortunes have favoured the bold of late. Could Rantanen be to the Hurricanes what Matthew Tkachuk was to the Florida Panthers or what Jack Eichel was to the Vegas Golden Knights?
The past two Stanley Cup winners prioritized having elite players, a strategy that has not yet worked for the Leafs. This playoffs could decide a lot for the team going forward, as the Leafs will have a chance to prove their proof of concept. If not, change would not be the worst thing in the world. Either way, the team will likely be forced into some bold decisions, whether that is move away from the core four or to examine other options. Many Leaf fans have been clamouring for dramatic change, and if the Hurricanes or Avalanche do win the Stanley Cup it will only intensify that position.
