We’re less than a week away from the 2025 NHL Draft. As the Maple Leafs draft stockpile continues to shrink, the hit rate of the few picks the team does have grows in importance. Toronto has traded away most of its picks, and as a result, its first pick in the draft is 64th overall.
Today is the first of many prospects I’ll cover this week that I think Toronto will consider with that 64th pick. I’ll go over his strengths and weaknesses, why he fits GM Brad Treliving’s vision for the team, and where I would rank him in Toronto’s prospect pool.
C–Matthew Gard–Red Deer Rebels–WHL
6’4”–192 lbs
66 GP–19 G–17 A–36 PTS
My Ranking: #53
Elite Prospects Consolidated Ranking: #53
I liked Ollie Josephson last year as a potential Leafs pick in the fourth round, and I return to the “Red Deer Rebels Well” this year with the first forward I would heavily consider if I were the Leafs at #64. His point totals don’t jump out at you, just 36 points in 66 games for Red Deer, but the numbers don’t tell the full story.
Red Deer was one of the worst teams in the WHL this season, finishing 17th in the league out of 22 teams. Gard was leaned on a ton as a second-year player, consistently playing in Red Deer’s top-six while being trusted a lot on defensive zone face-offs. There’s a world where Gard is long gone when the Leafs pick; Elite Prospects has him at #44.
Strengths
His size
In my initial viewings of him, the first thing that stands out is the size. At 6’4”, he’s difficult to miss, and an encouraging sign is how fluid his movements are at his size. While some bigger players who are still growing into their bodies will struggle to get going with the puck and can look like they’re labouring to catch up with the pace of play, that’s not an issue for Gard.
He’s not a burner by any means, but he’s an efficient off-puck mover who sees the ice well and works to be effective when he doesn’t have the puck. Gard’s a physical player who’s incessant with his pressure on the forecheck. He’s not afraid to lower his shoulder into players, utilizing his size and strength to force turnovers and win back pucks.
He’s also a very lanky player with a long reach, and he uses that to his advantage by applying pressure in his zone defensively on puck carriers. Defensively, he’s often in the right spots positionally, and while he can be caught out puck watching at times, his active stick and compete level make up for it.
A net front presence
He’s also got soft and nifty hands in tight for his size; he can slip pucks through sticks and make passes into space. He’s an especially nice short-area passer for a player of his size, working off his teammates quickly without holding onto the puck for too long. His ability to work with the puck in a phone box suggests that there could be a future for him in the NHL as an effective net-front presence, which was his role on Red Deer’s first power play unit this year.
As a net front presence, he has the tools, but his consistency wanes; at his best, he’s spinning off defenders with the puck to create space, jostling for position, and deftly tipping pucks. We saw that impact on the power play for Canada against Slovakia at the U18s. We also saw those flashes of his creativity on his first goal of the game against Regina back in January, where he had a nice spin-around shot far side. There are real flashes of him being a great net front player. Unfortunately, oftentimes he felt like an afterthought on Red Deer’s power play; the team didn’t seem to ever really try to get him the puck below the goal line.
Weaknesses
The questions with regard to Matthew Gard come down to the pace of play, consistency, and improvement of his playmaking. As mentioned, Gard is a fluid skater, but he lacks the explosive next gear in his skating.
His skating
Gard’s skating is like a Toyota Camry; it’s good enough to get you where you want to go, and it can keep up on the highway, but in a drag race? Not a chance. There’s a lack of separation in Gard’s game, which has made it increasingly difficult for him to show more flashes of an on-puck power game.
It’s led to him being an inactive member when it comes to his team’s entries, despite having the size and skill to be an active participant. He often leaves the controlled entry responsibilities to his teammates while favouring a more dump-and-chase approach himself. While you’d like to see him be effective at attacking defenders at the WHL level, you can’t say this doesn’t fit Berube’s system to a T.
I saw him try to take on defenders at the line a few times, but it seemed like he was often trying to force his way through multiple defenders and the lack of explosiveness in his stride meant he was usually unable to gain an advantage, and often got funnelled to the outside or stripped of the puck.
Gard’s NHL ceiling will largely be determined by how much more dangerous an on-puck attacker he can be. He has the hands and the size to be a skilled power forward, but he’ll need to find a way to be more explosive in his skating or more crafty with his intentions when he has the puck to get to that ceiling. While a great short area passer, finding a way to stretch out his range and vision as a playmaker could also go a long way in allowing him to be more than a run-of-the-mill bottom-six energy guy.
Fit
There’s a lot to like here from a Brad Treliving–Craig Berube-led hockey team. At Pick 64 in a weaker draft class, it’s unlikely to find an uber dynamic top-six complimentary player, but Gard offers the size, compete level, defensive play and hockey smarts that this Leafs front office will value. The flashes of his power game and creativity offensively are mostly just that, flashes, and if they had occurred more often, he’d likely be out of the Leafs’ draft range and into the first round. He’s an intriguing project, with a relatively late birthday (April), which means he does have the runway to improve.
To me, Gard is the perfect balance of projectability (likelihood to make the NHL) while also offering just enough flashes for an organization to be excited about what he could be if his development hits just right. If I had to place him in the Leafs Prospect Pool Hierarchy, I’d likely have him just below Chadwick and above Miroslav Holinka.
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