The most succinct version of the Leafs offseason is that the team acquired a trio of forwards after Mitch Marner left town. The headline might be Nicolas Roy, hoping to be the defensive third-line centre the Leafs have coveted. Perhaps the younger and more offensively gifted Matias Maccelli garners his share of hope.
While he might be flying a bit under the radar, it might be Dakota Joshua who represents the biggest X-factor of the new trio. Joshua is a big winger who has consistently fought his way up the depth chart since turning professional. Able to handle defensive assignments and with a helping of physicality, Joshua seems poised to be a staple of a checking line alongside Nic Roy. What should fans expect from the forward, and is there a chance he finds himself even further up the lineup?
Traits
As mentioned, Joshua is a capable defensive player. He competes in the tough areas of the ice, understands the importance of defensive focus, and is willing to do the legwork required to pressure opponents. As a baseline, the Leafs should expect 10 goals from Joshua on a checking line, as well as an intensity that is infectious.
While missing most of last season, it was the season prior that Joshua set career highs with the Vancouver Canucks. Undoubtedly, Joshua played well, as did his line alongside Teddy Blueger and Connor Garland. It should be noted that both linemates have a much longer track record of strong possession play, but Joshua was a huge contributor to their success.
While his career high of 18 goals in the 2023–24 season came from an elevated shooting percentage, Joshua was getting his chances from the net front. Perhaps with some continued growth, as well as some poise and a handful of tricks in tight, Joshua can replicate the feat. His assist rate, like his offensive game as a whole, is serviceable.
Opportunity
It would be bold to project 20 goals or 40 points from Joshua this season, but clearly, his career arc shows a dedication to the game. Perhaps Joshua can follow in the footsteps of former Leaf Zach Hyman in a prolonged developmental curve.
The opportunity for more might exist with the Leafs as well. Coach Craig Berube clearly values having a blend of skills on each line, and finding a henchman for John Tavares’ line seems paramount. Max Pacioretty proved invaluable last season filling in this type of role, though his offensive quality is rare among power forwards.
This gives Joshua two possible full-time roles in this Leafs lineup, as Roy’s checking winger or as Tavares’ henchman. While his past usage would suggest that Joshua is more than capable of a checking role, he might be the Leafs best option for muscle alongside Tavares and, presumably, William Nylander. If Joshua is willing to do the legwork and get to the net front, he might open up a lot of ice for Tavares and Nylander.
If there is any area the Leafs might look to upgrade within the season, it might be here. One might lack faith in Roy as a third-line centre or in Morgan Rielly as the top offensive defenceman, but these upgrades are more structural. Within the context of this team working out, finding a top-six power forward is the clear choice.
In the long and winding road of the NHL regular season, teams will be forced into lineup juggling one way or another. While Joshua might not be the first choice in a top-six role, he could grab hold of the spot with a bit of early chemistry. While his individual point totals might not skyrocket, the benefits should be recognized beyond that scope.
Battles
Currently, the Leafs have Bobby McMann as the main competition. A bounce-back season from Calle Jarnkrok might throw him into the mix. It seems unlikely that Berube would try another more skilled type of winger here, like Nick Robertson or Easton Cowan, if not Matias Maccelli or Max Domi, as Tavares and Nylander would seem to require a different kind of support. All of a sudden, Joshua might be the most reliable power forward the Leafs have after Matthew Knies.
While new additions like Roy and Maccelli have their defensive attributes, Joshua presents the dimension of physicality alongside. This should not be overlooked, and if Joshua can have a strong season with the Leafs he might find himself central to the team’s new identity. The glitz and glamour of younger or more skilled players might steal the show in training camp, but Joshua’s impact on the lineup will likely be more pronounced. His addition and the opportunity before him are ripe to pay off.
Tavares with Nylander is too much soft and always disappears in challenging and tough games. The remaining core 3 must all be on separate lines is the ONLY answer. Think of lines 2 and 3 as 2a and 2b. Try Nylander with Roy and another tough enough player such as Domi to boost Nylander. Try Joshua with Tavares and another tough enough player. Matthews needs another tough enough player in addition to Knies, not soft and small like Marner or Maccelli. Maccelli with Matthews may work in the regular season but it will surely disappear for the 9th year in a row in the tougher playoffs, just like Marner and Matthews did. Joshua is 29 already so he will need to develop quickly into a power forward hybrid to be of top 6 help to the Leafs. No doubt Joshua, Roy and Maccelli are all upgrades on Kampf, Jarnkrok and Robertson.
I’m looking forward to seeing where Joshua slots in after camp. I’d have no problem with him winning the LW2 Role Or RW3 position