Winning the Lottery
John Chayka has many extremely important decisions to make in the coming months as the Toronto Maple Leafs GM. The most important one is who the Leafs should pick with the first overall pick on June 26. After just two days on the job, Chayka and the Leafs lucked into the first overall pick, winning the draft lottery with just an 8.6% chance.
Now, Toronto has a chance to draft a franchise-altering prospect, and they need to nail their decision. At first glance, it seems like Gavin McKenna is the obvious choice. The 5’11, 170-pound winger from Whitehorse posted generational numbers in the WHL, scoring 41 goals and 129 points in 56 games before turning 18. Despite this, another prospect may have a stronger case for first overall than the general public realizes: Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg.
Looking beyond the obvious choice
Stenberg doesn’t make the flashy plays or put up the same numbers as McKenna does, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. McKenna produces his points in the WHL and NCAA, leagues with solid development systems and strong competition. Stenberg plays in the SHL, a league that is widely considered to have much harder competition than the NCAA and WHL. The average age of players in the WHL is ~18 years old, and the average age of players in the NCAA is ~21 years old.
On the other hand, the average age of players in the SHL is ~25 years old, meaning Stenberg is playing against full-grown adults at the age of 18. This makes his 11-goal, 33-point season in 43 games significantly more impressive than it may seem at first glance.
Dominating against men
It is extremely rare for an 18-year-old prospect to thrive in the SHL, and Stenberg was able to do so with ease, improving his game as the year progressed. Stenberg’s mature playstyle and elite hockey IQ are the main reasons for his success. He rarely takes a shift off and consistently impacts the game in every area. He has a strong all-around game, playing well on both sides of the ice and creating space effortlessly.
Stenberg had a better draft year than many elite players who started off in the NHL, including Nicklas Backstrom and Leo Carlsson. The only players to have had better draft years than Stenberg were the Sedin twins, which is elite company to be in.
The complete package
Stenberg will likely make the jump to the NHL immediately, and although he may have a worse long-term projection than McKenna, he will probably make the initial transition almost seamlessly. His 200-foot game is elite, with coaches often praising his defensive play. This is a phenomenal quality to have as an 18-year-old trying to make the jump to the next level.
Scouts also notice that he seems to constantly be in the right spot at the right time, demonstrating his fantastic hockey IQ. The biggest praise surrounding him is how complete his game is. There isn’t one part of his game that completely stands above the rest, but he consistently impacts the game in every area. His hockey IQ, defensive awareness, and playmaking ability make him a safer option than McKenna, while still having a high ceiling.
The case for McKenna’s generational upside
On the other hand, McKenna’s skill level is extremely hard to overlook. This kid has the potential to be a generational player in the NHL, and although that is unlikely, the possibility is so hard to pass up. Players with this level of offensive talent are extremely rare.
McKenna’s production in the WHL is better than that of players like Connor McDavid and Connor Bedard. As many have said, defence can be learned, but elite skill cannot. If the Leafs go for the safer pick and take Stenberg over McKenna, it could haunt them for a long time. On the contrary, McKenna does have a small chance of not being able to put everything together at the NHL level and never reaching his potential.
Stenberg is almost guaranteed to be a fantastic player for a very long time, especially right out of the gate.
The ceiling vs. the floor
The argument that Stenberg’s lower offensive production may limit his long-term ceiling compared to McKenna is definitely valid. While playing in the SHL at 18 years old at this level is undeniably impressive, some scouts question whether he has the elite offensive tools needed to become one of the very best players in the NHL.
He projects as an incredibly effective and complete player, but maybe not someone who could be the face of the NHL. Stenberg’s most common player comparison is Lucas Raymond, who is undeniably elite but certainly not a franchise talent. McKenna is most often compared to Nikita Kucherov, a player who has scored over 120 points in each of his last 3 seasons. It is hard not to get excited about that comparison. Even if McKenna becomes only 80% of the player Kucherov is, that would still be a massive win for the Leafs.
A franchise-defining choice
If Toronto wants the player most likely to become an immediate impact NHLer, Stenberg may be the better choice. However, if the Leafs are willing to take a greater risk in pursuit of elite talent, selecting McKenna could provide the greater reward.
Personally, I have a hard time justifying passing up on McKenna’s upside, despite the risks attached to his game. However, I would not be upset if the Leafs end up picking Stenberg. Both prospects offer completely different strengths, making this one of, if not the toughest, decisions Toronto has faced in the past decade.
Ultimately, no matter which direction they choose, this decision will likely define John Chayka’s tenure as general manager for years to come.
McKenna is the correct choice. Generational players are rare and difference makers. Maurice Richard, Howe, Bobby Hull, Bobby Orr, Gretzky, Lemieux, Crosby, OV, McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews and Makar in 88 years. To have two on the same roster would exceptional. Only occurred one in Colorado. Add a franchise player in Nylander and possible franchise player in Kolber. If both McKenna and Kolber develop in the Matthews’ Era, with potential allstar Knies , good top six winger Cowan plus future Hall of Fame Tavares, the Leafs will have an incredible forward group. Better than this year’s Stanley Cup finalists.
Draft McKenna and let’s move on to possibly the best period in Leafs’ history post 67.
Agreed, just offering a bit of perspective. Can’t wait to see the kid in the blue and white!