The Toronto Maple Leafs season was about as disastrous as it possibly could have been, with the team finishing fifth-last in the entire NHL. To make matters worse, their first-round pick is owned by Boston and is only top-five protected. The team was one point out of finishing third-last and being guaranteed to keep the pick. That being said, the Leafs still have a 42% chance of keeping their pick on draft lottery day (May 5), and an 8.5% chance of picking first overall.
If the Leafs got a bit of luck and jumped from five to one, what would the right move be for the position they’re currently in?
Keeping the pick
If the Leafs keep the draft pick rather than trading down, we are likely looking at them drafting one of two forwards, Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg. Although both players are phenomenal talents, both of them are wingers and do not fill the Leafs’ primary needs of a defenceman or centre. Regardless, it is difficult to pass on drafting a potential generational prospect just because he doesn’t perfectly fit your team’s needs. All things considered, if the Leafs do end up having a chance to draft one of these kids, which one should they draft?
Gavin McKenna
Gavin McKenna has been the projected #1 overall pick for the 2026 draft for many years, as he was granted exceptional status to play in the CHL at just 14 years old. The hype has been growing ever since then, with him posting as many as 41 goals and 129 points in 56 games in the WHL before electing to play in the NCAA during his draft year. He has also dominated the league this year, scoring 15 goals and 51 points in 35 NCAA games while having a great World Juniors campaign. His skill is undeniable; he has been touted as the best passer the CHL has seen since Mitch Marner and Connor McDavid. His hands are nasty, and he also has a goalscoring touch as well. McKenna could certainly turn the franchise around if he fell into the Leafs’ lap at first overall.
Ivar Stenberg
Although Stenberg isn’t as skilled as McKenna, some scouts praise him as having a much better hockey IQ and being generally more effective than Gavin. His two-way game is phenomenal, and his combination of skill and hockey IQ makes him a very interesting player, especially for his age. His game is extremely mature, and he is able to create chances every time the puck is on his stick in the offensive zone. He has 11 goals and 33 points in 43 games in the SHL, averaging around 16–18 minutes a night; very impressive numbers for an 18-year-old. He also impressed at the World Juniors, putting up four goals and 10 points in seven games. Although his numbers aren’t as ballistic, Stenberg’s versatility will likely lead to him being a very dangerous two-way winger in the NHL for years to come, potentially becoming a 90-point Selke forward.
Trading Down
Another possibility of the Leafs winning the draft lottery would be trading down a few spots to recoup some assets. The Leafs’ biggest need is a true #1 defenceman, something they haven’t had in decades. There are many fantastic defence prospects available in the #3–6 range, such as Keaton Verhoeff, Chase Reid, or Carson Carels. Would trading down to acquire additional assets while still landing one of these players be the smarter move? And which player should be the target?
Keaton Verhoeff
Keaton Verhoeff is a 6’4” right-shot defenceman, the ideal blueprint for a defenceman coming out of the NCAA. Although he is big, that isn’t his only asset, as the young blue liner is extremely skilled. He can move the puck better than anybody, and he can create chances from nothing. He also has a wicked wrist shot and great vision, and has six goals and 20 points in 36 games in the NCAA; very impressive numbers for a young two-way defenceman. Although his skating isn’t great, it will improve as he grows as a player. Verhoeff is certainly an intriguing prospect that the Leafs should definitely think about drafting, should they get the chance.
Chase Reid
Chase Reid is also a big right-shot defenceman, measuring in at 6’2″, 188 lbs. Reid has an incredible shot, with some scouts saying it is already at the NHL level. His skating is also much better than Verhoeff’s; he is extremely mobile and uses it to his advantage. His defensive game has steadily progressed as he has aged, with the Soo Greyhounds heavily relying on him. He plays 28 minutes a night on average and put up 18 goals and 48 points in 40 games as a defenceman. His offensive ceiling is extremely high, and he is capable of quarterbacking a power play with ease. Reid will almost certainly be a top-pairing defenceman at the NHL level, and the Leafs would be lucky to have a chance at drafting him.
Carson Carels
Carels hasn’t been talked about as much when it comes to defencemen in this upcoming draft, but he absolutely deserves to be in the same tier as Reid and Verhoeff. The 6’2 left-shot defenceman is very well-rounded and competitive. He plays a very physical game and skates incredibly, helping him to drive transition play. This playstyle translates very well defensively, as Carels is able to effectively shut down just about anybody with ease. Although he isn’t as flashy offensively as Reid, his hockey IQ has led to him putting up 20 goals and 73 points in 58 WHL games. He lacks elite offensive upside, which makes scouts wary, but he has the tools to be a solid two-way defenceman at the NHL level. Although he doesn’t shoot right, Carels is a fantastic defenceman who will likely be a top-pairing guy for years to come.
What should the Leafs do?
In my opinion, if the Leafs were to win the draft lottery, they should simply draft the best player available, Gavin McKenna. Drafting based on position is risky, and we have seen it backfire on teams many times; examples include the Devils drafting Simon Nemec at second overall and the Habs drafting Jesperi Kotkaniemi at third overall. If the Leafs were to hypothetically trade down or simply end up picking at fifth overall, I would pick Carels, as he is the safest bet to be a top-pairing defenceman in my opinion. The Leafs getting a game-breaking prospect could change the team for the better; now it just comes down to whether the Leafs can get a bit of luck on their side in the draft lottery.
Huh?! The Leafs primary need is a line 1 winger!! Besides, you never trade away 1st or 2nd pick because they’re usually the best by far! Gavin McKenna born in Canada with the 1st pick, please! You always pick the BEST player in round 1 of the draft down to 10 at least because they are worth the most and they often can’t jump right into playing in the NHL anyway. If the Leafs need top players right now and are going to squander their priceless pick on someone lower then they should trade the 5th pick for what they need! You don’t use your 5th pick for someone rated 9th and certainly not a 2nd to pick a 6th!
Did you read the article? That’s exactly what it says lol.
Actually, it says everything under the sun, loser. It talks about trading down on a 1st or 2nd. It talks about picking McKenna or Stenburg with the 1st when McKenna should be obvious. It talks about trading down on a 5th. It even goes on to discuss who they would trade down for. You should read it sometime, a wipe. Don’t worry, I won’t bother with you or your useless articles again.
It’s a hypothetical at what the team should do if they luck into picking first 😭 it goes over every possibility and at the end I say they should draft the best player available, Mckenna should they win the lottery. Read the whole thing before commenting next time man 😭