With the draft lottery nearly upon us, the Toronto Maple Leafs first-round pick hangs in the balance. If the lottery keeps them in the top five, they keep the pick. If the lottery sees them fall below that, the pick goes to the Boston Bruins. There is a 42% chance they keep the pick.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the players that will be in the conversation should the Leafs keep their pick.
Top three prospects: McKenna, Stenberg, and Reid
McKenna
A winger that oozes skill, it is very easy to identify Gavin McKenna when he is on his game. Though the college level proved tougher at the start of the season, McKenna proved his capacity for growth with a scorching second half. Quite simply, he has scored at an elite level on a consistent basis. One might project a similar arc in the NHL next season, though the environment around him might greatly impact his rookie numbers.
The Leafs could use a high-end, puck-dominant playmaker on the wings, but it is hardly their biggest need. This could unlock a power forward like Matthew Knies, a sniper like William Nylander, or something of both like Auston Matthews or John Tavares. McKenna would give the Leafs the scoring upside that once made the Leafs core famous.
There would be some hope that McKenna could be different than the Leafs core group, that he might elevate in the big moments, and develop an edge to his game. Obviously, the Leafs would be drafting him for his skill more than anything. Still, as he is often compared to Nikita Kucherov as a high-end outcome, it should be noted that Kucherov is fiercely competitive and, at times, even dirty.
Stenberg
In many ways, the equation is quite similar for Ivar Stenberg, though occasionally some have pondered a potential as a centre. Stenberg is much more understated than McKenna, much less style but just as much substance. Able to process quickly, Stenberg finds open passes, especially towards the middle of the ice.
His strong production in the SHL this season is a huge testament to that. Stenberg is able to manipulate opponents, creating open passes or finding space to beat goalies with a quick, accurate shot. It is encouraging to see some goal scoring around the net front, finding quiet ice rather than battling in front.
Like McKenna, Stenberg might well be in the NHL next season. While he might not have the same star power off the ice, Stenberg might make just as much of an immediate impact for the Leafs.
Reid
Chase Reid has it all. The right-shot defenceman is an excellent skater and is commanding with the puck. He is able to use his size and skating defensively, providing some hope for a well-rounded game in the future. The main highlight here is the offence, which is somewhat unmistakable at the OHL level. Reid projects as a top power play option and will play college hockey next season.
More than the high-end forwards, Reid fills a desperate need for the Leafs. He would drastically alter the future of the Leafs blueline, an older unit that lacks high-end offence. His right shot makes a difference, too, providing a nice contrast to top prospect Ben Danford. Both defencemen might be ready to be impactful NHLers to start the 2027–28 season, giving the Leafs a strong foundation ahead of the uncertainty involved with Auston Matthews’ next contract.
Increasingly, Reid is seen as the top option on the blueline in this draft, with some even putting him ahead of McKenna or Stenberg. Might the Leafs be one of those? Even without the ideological debate on drafting a need versus the best players available, the Leafs could consider Reid.
Defensive anchors: Verhoeff and Carels
Verhoeff
For most of the season, Keaton Verhoeff was seen as the top defenceman in the draft. A big right shot, Verhoeff projects to be a solid defender in his own zone despite not being very punishing. There is offensive upside as well, as Verhoeff is keen to jump up into the play and is great at finding passing lanes.
Verhoeff already plays college hockey, a big plus. This more difficult path might have taken some shine off of his draft season, as other defencemen in lower leagues produced more impressive offensive totals. Any struggles might be in large part due to his big role as a 17-year-old in an increasingly talented league.
While he might not be a top power play option like Reid, Verhoeff is much more projectable as an all-situations defender. Some feel his offensive upside is limited, as is his decision-making, leading to questions of whether or not he can become a true number one defenceman. At the same time, being drafted to Team Canada’s U20 World Junior team as a draft-eligible defenceman is a huge vote of confidence.
Regardless, Verhoeff seems to have as high a floor as any prospect in this draft. He would transform the Leafs blueline, of course. With Danford and Verhoeff on the right side, the Leafs would have a strong defensive foundation in their future.
Carels
Unlike the prior defencemen on this list, Carson Carels is a left shot. Rugged and physical, Carels has the most edge of the three. His defensive reliability was acknowledged, playing on Team Canada’s U20 World Junior team alongside Verhoeff. While much less heralded than Reid and Verhoeff at this point, Carels’ game has been consistently praised by NHL Central Scouting. This profile alone is impressive, but it hardly tells the whole story.
Carels scored at an incredible rate in the WHL this season. His offensive game might not be as dynamic as Reid’s, but it would be completely disingenuous to suggest that it is not notable. As much as Carels has the strength, physicality, and smarts to be a high-end shutdown defenceman, his offensive game proves that even more might be possible. While he can jump into the rush and make plays with the puck, his offence is much more about vision and processing than it is about high-end skill.
More than any of the players above, Carels would change the personality of the Leafs team upon his eventual arrival. While right defencemen are more valuable in general, the Leafs need help on the left side as well. It might be a stretch to draft Carels at first or second overall, but the Leafs should really value his skill set regardless.
Centre reaches
Malhotra
Son of former Leafs coach Manny Malhotra, Caleb Malhotra has risen up the ranks throughout the season. Coming from almost nowhere, Malhotra has put together an amazing season on a strong OHL team. His size and well-rounded game have many believing him to be the draft’s top centre. There are lots of good details to his game, and his trajectory is really encouraging.
Still, some do not believe there is upside for a number one centre. He may not ooze the high-end skill required to lead an NHL team offensively. Perhaps his lack of hype going into his draft year hurts his stock here, though it seems a bit foolish to discount his recent strides forward in his development.
For now, the Leafs do not need a number one centre. The Leafs centre depth, especially given Matthews’ eventual UFA status and John Tavares’ age, could use some future proofing, though. If the Leafs opt to draft Malhotra, that reality will be a big reason why.
Bjorck
Another potential centre is Viggo Bjorck. The main issue is his 5’9 size, which will cast doubt on him in NHL circles. Other than that, Bjorck is quite impressive. He has looked every bit as dominant as Ivar Stenberg when the two share the ice. He is strong and plays bigger than his size. Bjorck thrives in contested ice and played in the SHL this season. His talent and work ethic are not up for much debate, evidenced by a strong playoff performance.
His size is the issue, not only as a top prospect but also as a centre specifically. Bjorck’s biggest supporters will bring up Brayden Point, another smaller centre who plays much bigger than his size. Like Malhotra, the Leafs selecting Bjorck would speak to a belief in the player as a long-term answer down the middle.
Lawrence
The most polarizing inclusion on this list, Tynan Lawrence, had a strange draft year. Flipping across leagues, Lawrence found a home in the NCAA midway through the season. His production left a lot to be desired, especially given his high-end status entering the year.
Lawrence flashed elite traits, the speed and skill to be on the radar as a high-end centre prospect. The increasing talent in college hockey made things tough, and Lawrence’s production was underwhelming. Still, many believe in the tools and the process. It would be a fairly significant reach for the Leafs to bet on Lawrence in the top five, but centre is seen as a high-value position.
Conclusion
There are many other high-end talents available in the draft, but the Leafs are stuck with the conditions of their pick. Using this year’s pick for themselves would push their traded firsts in 2026 and 2027 down the line a year. The best chance to make those picks more palatable to part with comes through selecting a franchise changer this season.
It might only be McKenna and Stenberg who can make an immediate impact next season, but the other top prospects would still greatly improve the Leafs future. Improving significantly otherwise will be very difficult. As complex as the conditions of their draft picks might be, and as uncertain the direction of the team is, keeping their pick is vital. The Leafs should hope that this is the last time they finish so low in the standings with Auston Matthews on his current contract.
