T.J. Brodie made one of his nicest offensive plays in a Toronto Maple Leafs uniform on Monday night versus the Florida Panthers, circling behind the net and darting a pass across the crease to find Auston Matthews backdoor for a tap-in.
It’s something we haven’t seen from the defenceman in a long time, but it’s a good representation of his improved game since returning from back-to-back scratches in March.
Brodie has never been asked to produce offensively for the Leafs, but he’s recorded four assists in his first five games back. Based on what he’s done in the blue and white, it’s wild to think of him as even an average point producer, but there was a time in Calgary when he was putting up around 40 points a season.
Of course, he’s been tasked with being the Leafs’ number one shutdown defenceman instead of being a point producer since he arrived. And he did the job extremely well, until this year.
Brodie’s expected goal percentage has dropped 7.6% at 5v5 this year according to Natural Stat Trick, which passes the eye test with flying colours. I’ll get into the details below.
A resurgence would be massive for a Leafs playoff run, and it just might be starting.
A quick dive into Brodie’s numbers
It’s not a surprise Brodie’s under-the-hood numbers have cratered this year, so we won’t spend too much time on them. But just for reference, here are some stats:
Last year, Brodie totalled 17 defensive zone giveaways in 58 games at 5v5, just 0.29 a game according to MoneyPuck. This year, that rate is up to 0.44. He’s also on pace to finish with fewer takeaways than he did a season ago in 22 more games.
Since joining the Leafs, Brodie’s lowest xGF% at 5v5 was 53%. Last year he was up to 56%. This year, he’s at just above 48%. This is because his expected goals against per 60 minutes have skyrocketed (or from the perspective of it being a negative stat, it has cratered) from 2.2 to 2.9, the worst of his career by a mile.
He hasn’t been the same defensively, not even close. But he’s looked a lot better since rejoining the lineup.
Brodie’s regaining confidence
Brodie has played almost 12 and a half minutes on the penalty kill over the last two games and hasn’t been on the ice for a goal against. In fact, the Leafs haven’t given up a goal on the kill with Brodie on since he got back from his two-game break.
He played 23 minutes for the first time since February on Monday, with 50% of his shifts starting in the defensive or neutral zones.
He looks like vintage T.J. Brodie again, and Keefe has taken notice.
Part of it is Brodie’s move back to the left side. He’s made playing his off-hand work since joining Toronto, becoming Morgan Rielly’s best partner by a longshot and somehow remaining shutdown even on his weak side. But this year, it hasn’t worked.
Moving back to his side of the ice
In his last four games, he’s been paired up with noted righty Ilya Lyubushkin, and Brodie’s been noticeably better defensively. His stick is back in passing lanes, he’s blocking more shots, and the Leafs are back to winning his minutes.
It’s funny what moving back to your natural side can do, as even his gap control and board battles look better. And he’s producing offence!
The third period of the Leafs’ 6–4 win over the Panthers was tough for everyone, Brodie included. The team got caved in, and his numbers took a hit because of it. But other than that, he’s looked much more comfortable since rejoining the team.
Toronto seems to be on to something with the way they’ve handled their struggling players this year, first with Ilya Samsonov and now with Brodie. Maybe players sometimes just need to clear their heads to get back on track.
Toronto’s options for postseason defence pairings
Brodie and Rielly have been stapled together for a while, but it seems like this year’s postseason will be different.
Before being hurt, Rielly played a ton with Lyubushkin (who’s been playing with Brodie because of the Rielly injury). So Rielly-Lyubushkin is a pair, where does Brodie fit in?
If he wants to stay on the left side, he’d have to play with Timothy Liljegren or Joel Edmundson. Jake McCabe could maybe slide over to his off-side to help Brodie, but he’s also been worse on the right.
Brodie’s underlying numbers with McCabe and Liljegren are both ugly, and he hasn’t played with Edmundson at all. Then again, his numbers aren’t really good with anyone.
But if Brodie’s turned a corner, he can truly play with everybody. Brodie has been so good wherever he’s played as a Leaf (until this season) and if we get a prime Brodie for the playoffs, Keefe can stick him anywhere.
The best time to get Brodie back to himself
It’s hard to overstate just how impactful a revived Brodie would be in a playoff run. The Leafs have no issues scoring goals (although the playoffs have killed them in that regard before), but have trouble keeping the puck out of their net, and have had a brutal penalty kill until very recently.
Brodie fixes both of those issues. What a great time for a turnaround for him.
