Not counting the bubble year in 2019–20, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ home and away records in the playoffs under Sheldon Keefe have been confusing.
Whether it’s the pressure of playing in front of a crowd absolutely starving for playoff success, a mental block, or just a coincidence, the Leafs have been way worse at Scotiabank Arena than anywhere else.
Maybe it’s good that they’ll start with two games on the road against the Boston Bruins. Maybe “away-ice” advantage can be useful for the Leafs in a deep playoff run.
That said, the issues at Scotiabank Arena have cost the Leafs, and will continue to do so unless Toronto can find a way to impress their home crowd consistently.
What causes the Leafs to struggle on home ice
The Leafs have played 14 home playoff games since the 2020–21 playoffs. Four against the Montreal Canadiens, seven against the Tampa Bay Lightning, and three against the Florida Panthers.
They are 4–10 in those games.
As a gut check, most people probably would have confidently guessed the Leafs had trouble scoring on home ice. A lack of goals has cursed the team in the past, especially deep in series. With such a horrible record, I assumed putting the puck in the net was the issue.
It’s not nearly as bad though.
They’ve scored 2.9 goals a game at home over the last three postseasons, which isn’t great but isn’t terrible either. On the road, they’ve scored 3.1 goals per game. That’s not a huge difference, but 4–10 at home is a lot worse than 7–4 on the road.
So is it goaltending and defence? Toronto has given up 3.1 goals a game at home versus 2.6 on the road, which is pretty significant. Maybe the blame can be put on the team’s defence at home. Do the players want to get the crowd into it, and try to cheat for offence?
Honestly, that doesn’t pass the eye test for me. I’ve thought the Leafs played tighter at home, and looked more nervous. But maybe that’s just me.
I do think there’s something else going on, though.
The Leafs get worse after Game 4s
When the Leafs lose a series, they do it in one way. They get shut down.
In Game 7 against Montreal, they scored once. In Game 7 against Tampa, they scored once. In the Florida series last year, they scored exactly two goals in every game.
Even if we go back to the Columbus Blue Jackets bubble series, they got shut out in the winner-take-all Game 5.
They can’t score when it matters, and it’s cost them every year.
Here’s the thing, though. They’ve had home-ice advantage in every one of their last four series.
So do they really suck at home, or do they just play there more when the series extends?
Toronto has played nine games past Game 4’s in the last three playoffs. They’ve scored over three goals once in those games, and average just 2.2 goals. In last year’s postseason, not a single team scored less than that.
They give up three goals a game in Games 5–7, which isn’t even bad. They simply can’t put the puck in the net in important games.
In Games 1–4, they score 3.4 goals and give up 2.9. So they go from 3.4 goals per game in the beginning of a series, to 2.2 when it gets more and more important. If you wanna talk about a team with demons, the Leafs are the team.
But six of the nine games past Game 4 have been at home. Both Game 7s were at home, and they’ve been eliminated on home ice every year.
Considering they also get shut down on the road past Game 4, I’d say it’s less about where they are playing and more about where they are in the series.
Things are different this year for Toronto
For the first time since 2018–19, the Leafs don’t have home-ice advantage in the first round. Unfortunately, that was also the last time they played the Boston Bruins, and we know how that went.
Even though Toronto finally won a round last year, they didn’t look any better in important games, at least to me. They scored twice in every Game 5 or 6 they played and visibly looked tighter and more nervous.
So, if they want to win a series, their best bet is getting an early lead (even though that didn’t work against Montreal). Maybe starting on the road will help them.
If nothing else, the Leafs are definitely damaged goods. They know they choke, they know they’ve been embarrassed over and over for the last decade.
They also have a rabid fanbase, ready to pounce at any more failure they have to endure. That surely can’t help the mental of the Leafs roster, even if they deny it.
Will starting on the road really help? I have no idea. The numbers say probably, but playing against Boston is going to be a real test of the Leafs’ fortitude.
The teams have so much history, it’s going to come down to whether Toronto can battle through the mental warfare the Bruins are going to put them through. Let’s hope they can.
