It would’ve been really nice if the Toronto Maple Leafs just lost in Game 5, going out sad without giving us an ounce of hope.
But no, like they always do, the Leafs made the heartbreak as painful as possible. Two straight gutsy wins in Games 5 and 6 and a third period lead in Game 7, all for nothing after losing their sixth straight winner-take-all game.
But before calling for heads to roll, or coming up with mock trades to get rid of Mitch Marner, we need to examine what went wrong (and what went right). The Leafs did some things well against the Boston Bruins, but what does this team need to change to become a real contender?
They have to put the puck in the net
It has been 14 postseason contests since the Leafs scored four goals in a game. Fourteen!
Since then, they’ve scored three once.
They have scored two or fewer goals in 13 of their last 14 playoff games. You could put the San Jose Sharks in their position and they wouldn’t be that bad.
Those numbers are honestly ridiculous. They shouldn’t be possible, especially for a team with just under $60M being spent on their forward core. In case you were wondering, no team left in the playoffs is even close to that number.
Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander, and Marner combined for 12 points. Tavares and Marner had two and three points respectively and played in all seven games.
This has been the problem every single year. The team has been figured out in the playoffs, and they can do nothing about it. Montreal, Columbus, Boston, Tampa, Florida, it doesn’t matter. They can’t score when they need to.
Oh, and the power play (which makes a combined $47M, by the way) scored once in 21 tries. Their best power play in the final five games came from the second unit in Game 7, and it lasted about 45 seconds. They weren’t even close.
I have my gripes about how the team has been built around the Core Four. The Leafs’ third line scored zero goals in the series, Jake McCabe was the only defenceman to pot one, and the fourth line got caved in. It’s not like the supporting cast was great.
But at the end of the day, this team will only go as far as the stars will take it. And they clearly can’t take it anywhere.
Goaltending continues to haunt the Leafs
If Joseph Woll starts the series, I am confident in saying the Leafs win it. Ilya Samsonov looked a lot like he did before he was waived in December and it cost Toronto big time.
And again, this has been an issue for years.
Last year’s Round 1 victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning is the only time in the Matthews era the Leafs had the better goalie in a playoff round. One time in nine series!
Part of this is the Leafs not being able to generate scoring chances for eight years in a row, but the backbreakers Toronto’s goalies have given up are just painful.
In this series alone, I count four bad goals on Samsonov (and yes, both from Game 7 count). The Trent Frederic goal in Game 3 is one of the worst playoff goals I’ve seen the Leafs give up. Hampus Lindholm’s tying goal late in Game 7 is basically just as bad.
On the series clincher, he easily beats David Pastrnak to the puck if he reaches for it. Instead, he retreats to the goal line and gets beat.
Now, Joseph Woll is absolutely a good starting calibre goalie. He’s proven that without a shadow of a doubt. But he’s often injured and has only played 43 NHL games. I don’t think you can sign a backup and call it a day. Toronto needs a very good 1B in case Woll gets hurt, which is bound to happen.
Goaltending did not lose the Leafs this series, they scored 12 goals in seven games. But it definitely didn’t help.
William Nylander is the real deal
If there was any doubt about who Toronto’s best playoff performer was coming into the series, there isn’t anymore. Nylander is the only Leaf who seems capable of scoring clutch goals.
He led the team with three goals while only playing four games. That’s just sad.
Whether his new contract is a slight overpay or not, he is consistently the only member of the Core Four that plays well when it matters. The Leafs are lucky he’s locked up for eight more years.
And I don’t want to hear it about his change leading up to the OT winner in Game 7. He did nothing wrong on that play.
Other than him, Matthew Knies was the Leafs’ best forward. He’s going to be great for a long time, and these playoffs felt like his coming out party. He’s a pest, he can forecheck, and he shows up in big moments. Toronto desperately needs more guys like him.
Matthews was brilliant in Game 2, and played well in Game 7 while clearly battling something. He had a good, not great series, but we still don’t know what was up with him.
And the defence corps (except for the guy who’s paid the most) exceeded expectations. McCabe was fantastic, Simon Benoit and Joel Edmundson laid the body and blocked shots, and Ilya Lyubushkin was a pleasant surprise. In Games 5–7 especially, they were outstanding.
There are definitely pieces to like moving forward. The group of Nylander, Knies, McCabe, Benoit, and obviously Matthews is a good starting point for a team built for the postseason. Everyone else, probably not.
Mitch Marner is the elephant in the room
I already wrote about Marner’s playoff struggles but hoped he could turn them around. He didn’t.
With just a goal (a useless one, I might add) and two assists in seven games, Marner had maybe the worst playoff series of his career. He was invisible basically every night and showed nothing to convince fans he’ll ever be a playoff performer.
He’s scared of battles and plays way too safe. With the skill he has, he should put a ton of pressure on opposing defencemen, but he doesn’t. He simply doesn’t attack. It’s too easy to force him to the outside or even backwards.
The power play doesn’t benefit from him, he can’t drive his own line, and he seems so small.
Marner has a full no-movement clause, but I think both sides know it’s time. The experiment has failed, and he’s the only member of the Core Four that trading makes sense.
It really sucks it’s come to this, but there’s no way around it anymore.
What’s next for Toronto
There isn’t a choice, drastic changes have to happen.
Sheldon Keefe will surely get fired, and Marner might be traded, but there’s a lot more on the table.
I highly doubt T.J. Brodie and Ilya Samsonov will be back. Brodie was scratched six of seven games and Samsonov was brutal.
The Leafs would love to have Max Domi back, but if the market likes him Toronto will probably be outbid.
Tyler Bertuzzi looked fantastic to end the regular season, but had a meh series against the Bruins and will probably get a lot of money in free agency. For the right price, he and Domi would be great to bring back. But it’ll be hard to do so.
Does Edmundson re-sign? Does Lyubushkin? Mark Giordano is probably retiring, right?
Toronto has a ton of options moving into the offseason. Brad Treliving has his work cut out for him.
It’s a really sad end to this era of Maple Leafs hockey. If you told me after their surprise six-game loss to the Washington Capitals way back in 2017 that they’d win just one series in the next seven years, I wouldn’t have believed you.
But it hasn’t worked, and it’s not going to work. This team is going to look a lot different next year, and it’s overdue.
They’ve been doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. There’s no more time for it. This version of the Leafs is dead.
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