The Toronto Maple Leafs hold the 23rd pick in 2024 NHL Draft, and assuming they do not trade this pick away for Jacob Markstrom or another player, that is the selection they will make this year. They do not have any other high picks in the draft, with a fourth, three fifth, and two seventh round picks this year.
As a team, the Leafs have done a great job selecting players with high upside with their limited top picks. Easton Cowan is already looking like a steal with the 28th pick last season. Fraser Minten, Roby Jarventie, and Matthew Knies all look legit as second round picks. Looking at the abysmal drafting history of the Calgary Flames, Montreal Canadiens, and Ottawa Senators of late, the Leafs have a sneaky good prospect pool for a team that hasn’t had a top-10 pick since Auston Matthews in 2016.
This year should be no different. The Leafs should be looking to add a high-end player to their prospect cupboards, and with how this draft is shaping up, they should be able to. Here are some of the names that should be available around where the Leafs pick:
Nikita Artamonov
The Russian forward spent nearly the entire season in the KHL, playing under Igor Larionov for Torpedo Nizhny Novogord. Through 54 games, the 17-year-old had 23 points playing mostly top-six minutes. It is exceedingly rare for a player to play this many games in the KHL in his draft season, let alone put up these numbers. Most Russian prospects play more in the MHL and VHL, which are far weaker leagues.
The difference is that Artamonov is not most players. He reads the game at a very high level, positioning himself well on the play to support breakouts and create chances on net. A strong skater, he has good speed through the neutral zone and is able to skate both forward and backward quite well. He’s good in the corners, and able to contour his body to get to the dangerous areas of the ice.
His passing skills are excellent, and because he can see the game so well, he is able to make smart plays time and again. He’s also got really good endurance, playing upwards of 30 minutes a night as a forward in some games.
The challenge with him is he is not always consistent. Some games he is outstanding, others he simply is there. Some shifts he makes excellent reads, while others he just doesn’t seem to have it. Remember he is just a teenager and these things take time, but this is an area of his game he needs to work on.
He’s also not the biggest guy on the ice, and needs to work on filling out his frame. He’s not the most physical player as it is, and will need to work on this as he transitions to North America.
The other challenge is that given he is from Russia and has two more years on his contract, there is always a risk that he may not make the jump to North America. The Leafs will need to be certain that he will come over in time if they use their first round pick on him, but given their strong connections in Russia, they will have a good read on him.
Aron Kiviharju
Prior to this season, Kiviharju was a projected top-five pick in this year’s draft, but after an ok last season and a very injury-shortened this season, the projections for the Finnish blueliner are all over the place. He played just seven games this season, and had two points in that time.
The offensive defenceman is known for his passing, able to hit players on breakouts as well as find seams in the offensive zone that others simply do not see. He’s got a great read of the game and is able to exploit defenders over and over again.
A master of walking the blueline, Kiviharju is a prototypical offensive defenceman, with the skills and skating that a top powerplay needs. He anticipates well, and has the technique to execute plays that most defencemen simply cannot.
Beyond simply not having enough game experience this year, Kiviharju struggles defensively, with man-on-man situations being a particular area of concern. He doesn’t have the same issue in a zone setup, but does tend to lose his man in his own zone.
He’s also not the largest guy on the ice, standing 5’10”, which is small for a blueliner. He’s got a good frame for his size, but will need to build out his muscle mass to be effective at the NHL level.
Kiviharju is a high risk, high reward pick, but the offensive upside on him is immense if the Leafs think he can get there.
Beckett Sennecke
There are a lot of rumours of Sennecke going as high as the top-10 this year due to his strong second half and playoffs, but with the number of top talents available in the first 15 picks, there is a low chance that he goes there. If he does drop to the Leafs at 23, he’s a player to look at.
A right winger out of Oshawa in the OHL, Sennecke had 68 points in 63 games this season, then had 17 points in 12 playoff games for the Generals. Known for his scoring, Sennecke has a wicked shot, able to beat goalies clean from nearly anywhere on the ice. Because he reads the game so well, he is able to find open ice in dangerous areas, then takes the pass and can wire it right into the top of the net time and time again.
He’s also a very effective playmaker, able to find his teammates across the ice to create chances. Sennecke can skate really well, using his speed and stride to beat defenders on the inside. He’s also got a beautiful glide to his skating.
However, Sennecke is not strong defensively. He’s a strong skater, but is weak on the backcheck, seemingly more interested in offence than defence. In his own zone, he’s not as strong at reading the play, and doesn’t put in enough effort in the corners. He has been guilty of cheating, sneaking out of the defensive zone to try to get an outlet pass for a breakaway, which is something coaches absolutely hate.
The offensive upside is absolutely there for Sennecke, but if the Leafs think that his defensive game is coachable, he’s a player to target.
Michael Hage
A local Toronto kid, Hage took his talents south of the border, putting up 75 points in 54 games for the Chicago Steel of the USHL. Standing 6’1″, the right-shot centre will play at the University of Michigan next season.
While he did miss the majority of his D-1 season due to shoulder surgery, the forward took a massive step forward this season, due in large part to his skating and really good read of the game. He’s incredibly fast on his skates, and has great acceleration, which allows him to beat defenders through the neutral zone. Known for his playmaking skills, Hage knows how to find seams on the ice, and feed his teammates for chances.
While he does struggle with some consistency, the area of his game that has been the biggest work in progress is his defensive game, which was a liability prior to this season. He really has been much better at following the play in his own zone, battling hard against opponents, and pushing his weight around in the corners.
While he does need more game experience, there is a lot to like with Hage’s game. If he’s still available to the Leafs at 23, he’s worth a lot of consideration.
Andrew Basha
A product of Calgary, where GM Treliving last worked, Basha put up 85 points in 63 games for the Medicine Hat Tigers in the WHL. While these numbers are really good, he still only finished 21st in the league in scoring.
However, Basha has some elite skill that makes him a first round pick undoubtedly. One of the best skaters in the class, he is exceptionally fast, and strides so well through the neutral zone. He can fake left and right, and make defenders go the wrong way with ease.
Speed is always a good thing, but he combines this with really good reads of the play. He just knows where he needs to be in the offensive zone, and then knows based on where the defenders are, where he needs to be. He also has really good hands and great passing, which makes a massive impact on his outputs on the offensive end.
The challenge with being a fast player with good reads is that sometimes he tries to do too much. He doesn’t always rely on his teammates the way he needs to, and this can make opponents work smarter around him and turn the play up ice. This feels very fixable over time with good coaching.
On top of that, despite being six feet, Basha does often appear like a smaller player on the ice. He doesn’t throw his weight around effectively nor really get involved in the corners the way most WHL prospects do. This also feels fixable in time with good coaching.
Who should be the pick?
Assuming the Leafs do not trade the pick away, there are a number of quality players to pick from. Realistically, Sennecke will be drafted before the Leafs pick, which likely takes him out of the conversation.
Of the four remaining, Kiviharju is too high risk to take with a first round pick. With just one high pick this year, the Leafs need to make sure they take a winner with this pick. Let another team take a chance on him.
I would also not be thrilled with Artmaonov as the pick. While he was very impressive in the KHL, the runway for Russian prospects is longer as he has to come over from North America once his contract is over and then acclimatize to the game here. With the ongoing geopolitical issues, it makes more sense to pick a North American prospect with their first round pick.
This leaves two names to think about, Michael Hage and Andrew Basha, and honestly both would be great picks for the Leafs. Assuming there were no concerns about Hage coming back to play in Toronto after finishing up his college career, I’d give the edge to him. Not only is he a better prospect at this point, he also has a higher ceiling and looks to be a centre at the NHL level. More than that though, he’s a hometown kid and that always is a good story.
We’re just a couple weeks away from the draft and anything can happen between now and then. However, if he’s available, Hage would be an excellent pick for the Leafs.
One Comment