When discussing the Toronto Maple Leafs needs heading into next season, right-handed defensemen are undoubtedly number one on the list. Their weakest position, the only true RD the Leafs have under contract for 2024–25 is Conor Timmins, who’s never played over 31 games in a season.
For these reasons, you’d think RFA Timothy Liljegren would be an important piece for Brad Treliving to lock up, deepening the roster for cheap and giving Toronto valuable cap space to spend on one or two more RD.
But Liljegren is again in trade rumours, after an up-and-down season that saw him playing third-pair minutes in the playoffs and being benched in Game 4. For the third straight offseason, the Leafs are hoping Liljegren will develop into a reliable top-four blueliner, but his time to prove it may be coming to an end.
Liljegren was a smart pick when he was taken, and definitely isn’t a bust. But for a Leafs team that is looking to compete, and compete right away, waiting for a big development that might never come is risky business.
What’s also risky, though, is trading a high-ceiling RD for a discount and him blossoming on another team. Any trade involving Liljegren should include, or give the Leafs an avenue to find, a reliable player they can count on to be on the playoff roster next season.
There are many things to consider when discussing Liljegren’s situation, so let’s discuss.
Re-signing him won’t cost much
Two offseasons ago, Liljegren signed a two-year, $2.8M deal. At just $1.4M on the cap per year, the hope was he would develop quickly, giving the Leafs a RD to count on for cheap. But that didn’t really happen.
He signed that contract after a year he scored five goals and 23 points in 61 games. Over the span of the deal, he scored nine goals and 41 points in 122 games.
That’s eerily similar production for three straight seasons, and while points aren’t everything, it’s reflective of Liljegren’s overall play. He hasn’t really gotten better, which is unfortunate for a first-round pick.
Injuries have played a big part in this whole thing, and what really sucks for Liljegren is he looked like he was finally turning a corner before suffering an upper-body injury and missing a few weeks late last year. He came back having to battle for a playoff spot, and didn’t do much to prove he definitely belonged in the postseason top six.
All of this is to say he won’t be getting much of a raise this offseason. He will be a cheap, short-term option if re-signed, and betting on his ceiling wouldn’t be ill-advised. When you pay four forwards over $40M, it’s nice to have cheap options you’re familiar with, and even if he’s a bottom pair guy, Liljegren won’t be breaking the bank.
If he makes around $2M, the Leafs would still have a good chunk of cash to spend on one or two more RD. Experimenting with Timmins and Liljegren as the third RD might not make Leafs fans happy, but Treliving could want to give each of them one more chance to prove they can play.
It’s definitely not the most exciting option, but even if he signs and Treliving still doesn’t like what he sees, Liljegren could be an option at the deadline a lot like Rasmus Sandin was. Treliving doesn’t need to make up his mind as fast as he does with other Leafs free agents, and could kick the can down the road a bit by signing him to a short, cheap deal.
He still has trade value
Even though Liljegren hasn’t developed into the stud Leafs fans once hoped for, he’s only 25 and has yet to play a real full season. He was a top-end prospect not long ago, and has (rarely) shown flashes of the great offensive defenseman he was billed to be.
There are plenty of rebuilding teams who could love the chance to get more out of Liljegren, betting on his high ceiling. Even contenders who have faith in their coaching staffs might see something in the Leafs defenceman they can unlock, but that might be a sign to Treliving that maybe he should keep him.
And it’s not a massive gamble for another team acquiring him, either. Liljegren can play in the NHL, and has proved it for three years straight. He might never be the most effective playoff guy, or put up the points people once thought, but he’s at worst a solid depth defenceman with some offensive pop.
Sandin netted the Leafs a late first-round pick at a similar stage of his career, and while Treliving probably wants to use Liljegren to improve the team now, not get future picks, if he’s worth around the equivalent of a decent pick, packaging Liljegren for an upgrade sounds feasible.
Because he’s an RFA, a team could also try to lock up Liljegren long-term if they trade for him, hoping to get him for cheap and reap the benefits of his development in a couple of years. The Leafs can’t afford to do this, it’s too risky and will cost too much, but a rebuilding team with cap room would have to consider it. Again, this is what the Washington Capitals did with Sandin.
Liljegren is still really young and maintains a high ceiling as an offensive producer. If the Leafs don’t see him living up to that ceiling, it would be smart to use Liljegren to get a more reliable player now rather than keep waiting for him to develop.
Could a new coach unlock him?
An interesting part of Liljegren’s career is that Sheldon Keefe has basically been his only coach in North America. He came to the Marlies when Keefe was the head coach, and got called up the year Keefe became bench boss for the Leafs.
And at least with the big club, Keefe never really trusted Liljegren. By the end, it felt like if he had any other options, Keefe would’ve had Liljegren in the press box come playoff time.
Whether or not Keefe has anything to do with Liljegren’s lack of development is speculation at this point, but it wouldn’t be a shock if Liljegren grew a bit frustrated with Keefe’s systems and deployment. That’s not to say Liljegren ever played well enough to force his hand, and he was promoted in the lineup when he played well last year, but sometimes change is a good thing.
Liljegren came up as a great player in transition, using his skating to break out and enter the offensive zone. He was hyped up because of his offensive instincts, skating, and ability to carry the puck. Keefe’s system promoted none of this with the defence core, asking them to be more physical and defensive-minded rather than joining the rush or controlling play.
Craig Berube’s more north-south style of play might fit Liljegren’s puck-moving style more, and giving up on him before he gets the chance to play a new system might be premature. Berube has also proven to be more willing to use younger guys in bigger roles, but Liljegren also doesn’t fit the Treliving archetype, he’s not big and he’s not physical, so the GM might feel he’d be a better fit elsewhere.
The decision doesn’t have to be made now
Whatever happens with Liljegren, it’s hard to imagine it’s the highest priority with Treliving right now. He’s got all offseason to sign him if he wants, and can make and take trade calls all he wants. Re-signing and signing UFA’s will take precedence, but there will come a time when a decision will have to be made regarding Liljegren.
With his name coming up in so many rumours recently, and knowing Treliving’s style of defencemen he wants, it seems more unlikely by the day Liljegren will be a Leaf next year. If he isn’t, hopefully a reliable, impact player will be added to replace him.
It may seem foolish to move on from one of your only two right-handed defencemen, but Liljegren has had ample time to prove himself. Maybe a new coach unlocks his potential, or maybe he finds it somewhere else. Maybe he stays a decent bottom-pair guy until he finds a new home. It’s up to Treliving to decide what he thinks the best course of action is, but it would suck to watch Liljegren finally live up to the hype in another jersey.
