Since being drafted by the Leafs in 2020, Topi Niemelä has shown some very promising signs. Now entering his age 22 season (turning 23 in March 2025), Niemelä still has some way to go before earning an NHL debut as well.
While his tenure and role with the Marlies, as well as his right shot, are clear positives in his bid to make the Leafs, his being a holdover from past regimes and his size might be a hindrance. Let’s take a closer look at Niemelä’s game and if he has a shot at making his NHL debut this season.
Strengths/weaknesses
The biggest positive in Niemelä’s profile is his ability to jump up the ice, joining the transition attack. Naturally, this requires a degree of skating aptitude, but Niemelä is capable with the puck in such situations, able to deke and pass like a skilled forward. Niemelä is more of a playmaker in this context, though he is able to score from the slot off of wrist shots.
By the same token, Niemelä is an effective in-zone attacker, able to find and create open lanes for shots and passes. By no means is Niemelä an elite offensive player in the style of Cale Makar or Evan Bouchard, but he does seem capable of replicating the playing style of Sean Walker, who shares some similar traits to him. For what it is worth, Niemelä is far ahead of Walker at the same age.
Niemelä can cover ground in defensive transition, too. Using his skating and an active stick, Niemelä can separate opponents from the puck. His defensive mobility is backed up by good positioning as well. Despite his willingness to attack up the ice, Niemelä is able to pick his spots and avoid putting his team at a defensive disadvantage.
He might need a bigger, stronger defence partner to handle some of the heavy lifting during in-zone defence, but there are positive defensive traits for Niemelä to work with.
In all, Niemelä has a profile that suggests a positive effect on flow of play metrics like expected goals percentage. He should be able to help his team control play more often than not.
Production
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019–20 | Karpat | SM-liiga | 43 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 2020–21 | Karpat | SM-liiga | 15 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 2021–22 | Karpat | SM-liiga | 48 | 10 | 22 | 32 |
| 2022–23 | Toronto Marlies | AHL | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2022–23 | Karpat | SM-liiga | 58 | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| 2023–24 | Toronto Marlies | AHL | 68 | 8 | 31 | 39 |
Entering his age 22 season, Niemelä has been working his way through his developmental path. An offensive explosion in his third year in Finland inflated offensive expectations, but his work in the AHL and once upon a time at the U20 World Juniors suggests that his offensive game is functional at higher levels.
His stagnating production during his final year in Finland might suggest that his production is based less on game-breaking individual skill.
Almost 40 points as a 21-year-old AHL rookie is a great starting point for Niemelä, and it is not impossible that he is able to achieve a point per game in the next season or two. There is good reason to think that Niemelä’s team oriented offensive game will translate to the NHL, but his defensive game will have to be solid in order for him to get the chance.
Next steps
An increase in offensive production would be a good thing, though it is hardly the area which the Leafs will be looking for growth from Niemelä. Instead, it will be his ability to project as an NHL defender that decides his fate with the Leafs.
Given his age and his experience with the Marlies, Niemelä should be heading into training camp with hopes of making the Leafs, or at least impressing himself upon the Leafs new coaching staff.
It is very likely that GM Brad Treliving and coach Craig Berube prefer size on the blueline, and a number of bigger defencemen have been brought in on the right side to compete for the one roster spot that might be open on the Leafs right side. With some uncertainty surrounding Jani Hakanpaa’s injury status, the Leafs have Conor Timmins, Nicholas Mattinen, and Philippe Myers battling for a spot on the right side behind Chris Tanev and Timothy Liljegren, not to mention Jake McCabe and Oliver Ekman-Larsson who can play their weak side.
Not only is it a lot of competition, but within the context of the Leafs lineup, players who can contribute to the penalty kill will be favoured. Morgan Rielly is one thing, but the Leafs have Liljegren, Ekman-Larsson, and McCabe who can contribute offensively to an extent. Timmins and Mattinen have a degree of offensive upside, while providing some of the size that Niemelä does not, and with it potential for a greater defensive upside. Myers, meanwhile, has NHL experience and fulfils the third pairing penalty killer archetype the Leafs might favour.
In other words, Niemelä will have to be sound and steady to get into NHL games for the Leafs this season. It is a longer shot, but Niemelä might be able to prove himself more reliable than his internal competition.
2024–25 projection
Given the context of the Leafs lineup, projecting Niemelä to make the team out of training camp is difficult. In all likelihood, he will begin the season on the Marlies, where he should once again be one of the team’s more important defenders.
A more likely scenario for an NHL debut would be an in-season injury call-up. This would be an extremely important time for Niemelä to prove that he can handle top-level competition. If he is able to do so he might be able to stick with the Leafs, or at least warrant some interest as a waiver claim for other teams around the league when the time comes.
In any case, the next two seasons will be crucial for Niemelä’s chances at becoming a full-time NHLer, be it in Toronto or elsewhere. Given the stakes and the need, it would make sense for the Leafs to try to get a good look at Niemelä during training camp, even alongside an experienced defensive partner. Simon Benoit would cover a lot of Niemelä’s weaknesses, forcing him to rely on his puck-moving strengths to carry the load for the pairing.
One Comment