Whether it’s luck, fear, determination, or a combination of all three, somehow, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a better winning percentage without Auston Matthews than with him.
It doesn’t make sense, and this isn’t a suggestion they’re actually better off without him, but there are some real takeaways from the way they play without their best player. Especially on the power play, the strategy changes.
Maybe it’s time the team takes a good look at what they do better without Matthews, and use those successes even while he’s centring the first line.
A faster power play
Not surprisingly, the power play has been lights out since Matthews went down with injury. Part of this is that they just had to—their expected versus actual goal numbers on the man advantage were unsustainably bad and they were due for some goals—but the way they are playing also looks different.
Mainly, the unit (especially Mitch Marner) is not looking to feed Matthews the puck repeatedly. When you have a 69-goal scorer on the ice, it makes sense to get them the puck. But when it’s the only strategy, and teams can easily gameplan against it, it doesn’t work.
Now, the power play is run through Mitch Marner on the right side—where he’s found the most success in his career—and the speed difference is night and day. Instead of slowly throwing the puck around looking for Matthews, the power play is zipping around, skating, and shooting way more.
And that’s a massive change. The sheer amount of pressure on the net is new, and it’s a key to a successful power play.
When Matthews gets back, he’ll resume his time on the first power play unit. But the strategy should stay the same.
There’s no need to feed him the puck. He’ll get his goals, but to rob the likes of Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares of scoring opportunities on the man advantage makes no sense.
Also, Matthew Knies deserves to be on the top unit as well. But that’s a discussion for another day.
Is it fear?
It’s been a theme for the whole Matthews era, but Leafs always seem to answer right before things are about to go way south. A bad two-game losing streak? A gutsy win to prove themselves. Get blown out on home ice? Do the same to their next opponent.
So it’s safe to assume they get pretty motivated by fear.
And when Matthews is out, the rest of the highest-paid players on the roster show up—especially Marner, who has been nothing short of incredible lately.
They look motivated, committing to team defence and a hard forecheck. It’s not as if they aren’t good with Matthews, but they play like they are scared to get scored on. And it works.
All the more reason to split Matthews and Marner up
Like I said, Marner has been absolutely amazing since Matthews went down. He’s carrying his own line, the power play, and the penalty kill.
And whether it’s a mandate from management (I doubt it), the players (probably the truth) or a coaching decision, Marner and Matthews always play together.
But without an NHL-calibre bottom six, it’s time to split them up.
The line of Marner, Tavares, and Bobby McMann has been awesome. Matthews has shown chemistry with Matthew Knies and Max Domi. William Nylander is capable of carrying a line by himself, too.
That’s three absolute stars on three separate lines, causing crazy mismatches against any team in the league.
With more forward depth, maybe the Leafs could have the luxury of playing their two best forwards together. But right now, they just don’t.
And Domi needs a spark, too. The best hockey he played last year—by far—was when he was playing with Matthews and Tyler Bertuzzi. Give him Matthews again, get him going, and see what happens.
It’s honestly shocking Berube hasn’t tried splitting the duo up yet, but it’s time. It makes the forwards corps so much better, and is at least worth a shot.
Plenty to learn
Even though Matthews is the Leafs best player, there are lessons to be learned from the team’s success without him.
It’s not just a fluke the power play has been better, or the team defence improves when he’s gone. The team is not better without Matthews, but they play differently.
And it’s time to learn how to play properly, even with him.
