It’s been over two decades since the Battle of Ontario was seen in the NHL playoffs. It was another era of hockey and the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Ottawa Senators, and the NHL itself could not be any more different.
The last time Toronto faced Ottawa in postseason hockey was during the 2003–04 playoffs. For those who dare not remember, this was the last time the Leafs won a series that went the distance. That’s right, it’s been over two decades since Toronto won a Game 7 and it was in the Battle of Ontario.
A look at the Eastern Conference playoff race
As fate would have it, midway through the 2024–25 season, there is a nontrivial chance that the Battle of Ontario could make a Round 1 appearance in the upcoming playoffs.
After 42 games, the Leafs are 27–13–2, good for first in the Atlantic Division with a six-point cushion over the Florida Panthers. Being first in the Atlantic would give them a wild card opponent, and it just so happens that the Ottawa Senators are just one point out. They sit 19–17–3 with 41 points—the two wild card spots are currently occupied by the Tampa Bay Lightning with 44 points and the Columbus Blue Jackets with 42.
The Eastern Conference is as tight as ever and a few wins by one team and a couple losses by another can drastically change the playoff picture. Realistically, anything can happen and this potential playoff matchup can either be a fleeting snapshot of the midseason standings, or it could actually come to fruition.
The last-place team in the East right now are the Buffalo Sabres and they are just seven points out of the second wild card spot. It’s definitely safe to say that no wild card spot is safe.
The probability of a Battle of Ontario
It’s one thing to watch the daily NHL standings, it’s another to take a look at more calculated probabilities. What are the actual chances of the Battle of Ontario coming back in 2024–25? Below are the first-round probabilities for the Leafs and Senators from the invaluable HockeyViz.com.
These probabilities were calculated heading into January 7, 2025, so they will have already changed after Toronto’s win and Ottawa’s overtime loss. However, they still show the rough probabilities midway through the 2024–25 campaign, and it’s clear the Battle of Ontario has a nontrivial chance of returning in April.
Toronto’s more likely to face Tampa Bay or Florida, but those results only have a chance if they drop into the second or third divisional spots. Coming in third is indeed Ottawa, and this would be much more likely to occur as a first seed facing a wild card team.
Ottawa on the other hand is on the outside looking in. As such their playoff probability is already much lower, but they have virtually the same chance of meeting either Florida or Toronto. Again, Ottawa is much more likely to come in as a wild card team, but it’s not impossible that they can climb up to third in the Atlantic and Toronto falls to second/Florida remains second.
In any case, the most likely Battle of Ontario sees Toronto stay atop the Atlantic and Ottawa not just sneaking in but coming in just ahead in the first wild card spot. Currently, the HockeyViz model has the Washington Capitals finishing first in the East. If Toronto secures second, then Ottawa needs to make that jump.
There are far too many combinations that can happen at this point, but double-digit Battle of Ontario probabilities with over half the season complete are welcomed.
A brief history of Toronto versus Ottawa in the playoffs
Between these two teams, just four playoff matchups have been played—all of which were at the turn of the century. They first met in 1990–2000 and would do so for three consecutive seasons, building up the rivalry. The Battle of Ontario took a one-year break before resuming in 2003–04 and has since been on a decades-long hiatus.
The Leafs have beaten the Senators in every series so far, starting with a 4–2 series win, a sweep, and two series going the distance. These series included the likes of Mats Sundin, Gary Roberts, and Alexander Mogilny facing off against Daniel Alfredsson, Marian Hossa, and Radek Bonk to put just how long ago it’s been into perspective.
Renewing the Leafs versus Senators playoff rivalry
If fate allows it and the Battle of Ontario does in fact make its return, this will be a renewal of the provincial rivalry with high stakes for pride and glory present in first-round playoff hockey.
It’s still much too early to say, but sending a little bit of competitive energy into the universe might tip the scales in favour of this postseason rivalry renewal becoming a reality. And if it does come true, let’s hope the Leafs continue their postseason win streak over the Senators… and good luck to everyone making the inter-city drive on the #401 and #407.
