Apart from the Toronto Maple Leafs’ 6–2 win over the Calgary Flames on Monday night, the team has not looked good in the month of March. With just two wins in their last seven games–one of which was a narrowly snagged shootout victory over Utah–the Leafs have now sunk to third in the Atlantic Division, after being in a tight battle with Florida for the top spot for much of the 2024–25 season.
Fans had hoped that the team’s 2025 trade-deadline acquisitions would help keep the team as a true Cup contender, but the poor play of former Philadelphia Flyer Scott Laughton–zero points and a minus-3 through five games as a Leaf–has not helped the team flourish. However, the other main piece the Leafs got at the deadline, former Bruins defenceman Brandon Carlo, has been a different story for the blue and white.
Silent…but deadly
While Carlo’s numbers don’t leap off the page–a single assist through five games–he has had a considerable impact on the Leafs D-corps. The 28-year-old has been played all over the Leafs’ defensive lines, mostly with Morgan Rielly on the “first pair” so far. He has elevated the top-four, helping Rielly gain some form back. And he’s played considerable minutes as well, averaging the fourth most time-on-ice among Leafs defencemen–ahead of even Chris Tanev.
Speaking of Tanev, he has often been the league leader in blocked shots and currently sits fifth in the NHL. But in his five games played with the Leafs, Carlo has actually blocked nearly double the shots that Tanev has–Carlo has 11 compared to Tanev’s six. That is quite the feat for Carlo, and definitely helps sturdy up a blueline that’s been looking for more hard-nosed, honest play in their own end.
In addition, Carlo also sits at a plus-1 currently, and while not a drastic total, it is good to see that through his first five games, he is a positive asset when on the ice. His expected goals percentage, which sits at 56.15% at 5v5 so far as a Leaf, is first on the team. He isn’t very noticeable, often breaking up plays before they even start, but his impact is being felt.
As the deadline approached, it became clear the Leafs needed a right-handed defenceman more than anything else. And so far, Carlo has fit in perfectly. Not to mention he will be a Leaf for two more seasons after this one.
The “core four”, but on defence
The Maple Leafs finally have a legit, reliable, constant top four, consisting of Tanev, Rielly, Carlo, and Jake McCabe. Moving OEL down to the third pair allows this team a ton more flexibility, and makes the back-end feel completely different.
To win, the Leafs need two fantastic pairs. They don’t have the star power on the first pair to carry the blueline, so depth is where their value will shine through. And now, they have just that.
Carlo might be a 4D on a championship team, but he’s a really good one. And by giving Rielly room to breathe, and be more himself, he turns the Leafs biggest weakness into a strength.
Maybe the Leafs still aren’t good enough, we’ll have to wait and see, but the defence corps does not seem to be the problem anymore.
Defence wins championships
The Leafs need to build off their win against the Flames if they are to have any hope of recapturing the top spot in the Atlantic Division, and a big part of that will be improving their offence. The team has looked sluggish, and that has been especially clear through star Auston Matthews who, prior to scoring two goals against the Flames, had just three goals in his last eight games. But as it has been said across most sports, “Defence wins championships.”
If Carlo can continue to thrive in Toronto and the rest of the Leafs’ defence corps can pull it together on the back end, that should at least give the Leafs a cushion heading into the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs. it will then be up to the forwards–notably Matthews–to decide just how far this team can go.
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