A lot can change in 48 hours… On May 3, the Toronto Maple Leafs hired John Chayka as the general manager and former Leafs captain Mats Sundin as senior executive adviser of hockey operations. It seemed they were inheriting a team in shambles. The Leafs had an absolute disaster of a season; they missed the playoffs, their captain reportedly wants out, and it seemed likely that they wouldn’t have their first-round pick.
Missing the playoffs turns to magic
However, two days later, the hockey gods were on the Leafs’ side. They won the draft lottery and now have the top pick. The top pick will likely be either Gavin McKenna from Penn State University or Ivar Stenberg from Frolunda HC in Sweden. You can put Soo Greyhounds Defenceman Chase Reid in that conversation as well, but it’s unlikely he’ll go number one.
The NHL Draft can change your franchise; every Leafs fan remembers the core four experiment. Three of those four were acquired through the draft. Sometimes it changes multiple franchises. This year, for example, the Leafs will now get what they hope is a replacement for Mitch Marner, and the Boston Bruins now have the 23rd overall pick instead of having the 23rd and 6th overall picks. The Leafs’ first-round pick was top 5 protected and was sent to Boston as part of the Fraser Minten and Brandon Carlo trade.
As a result of the Leafs winning the draft lottery, they get their pick back. However, that means Boston and the Philadelphia Flyers get their next two first-round picks unprotected. So even though the Leafs could get a guy who contributes to their success as soon as this October, they still have some issues.
Coincidence?
If you have the tinfoil cap on and you think the lottery is rigged, first of all, take up watching the NBA as a hobby; you’ll have more to talk about, but here’s a crazy stat for you to use in your next argument. In the past 10 years, the Leafs have missed the playoffs twice; in both years, they won the draft lottery and got the top pick. Here is the crazier part: the 2016 and 2026 drafts were both being hosted in Buffalo.
If you think the NHL draft lottery is rigged, I think you’re crazy, because even though having a star in a Canadian market will make the NHL money, and Toronto being good will make the league money, they did it live on national television. If it’s rigged, they’re doing a better job hiding it than the NBA.
In 2023, Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban sold his majority stake in the team to billionaire Miriam Adelson and her family. They wanted to turn the arena in Dallas into a casino, which led to lawsuits by the Dallas Stars and the NBA. Last year, the Mavericks won the draft lottery and were given a so-called generational talent despite having the worst odds to win. I wonder how that happened?
What’s next?
There’s been a lot of speculation since we found out the Leafs won about whether they’ll draft McKenna or Stenberg. A lot of scouts say, “We’ll see in five years,” when you ask how the draft went. In the NHL, these teams are drafting players at 18, giving them a million dollars in hopes they’re right about their prediction of what an 18-year-old will be like when they’re 25.
Having said that, currently, scouts say McKenna is better. He has better skills and playmaking ability than Stenberg. In a perfect world, McKenna has been described as the next Patrick Kane. However, nothing ever goes exactly how you plan. He’ll more likely end up as a Clayton Keller-type player wherever he ends up.
One thing that’s being overshadowed by Toronto’s win is that the San Jose Sharks will get whoever the Leafs don’t want. So, in the scenario where the Leafs take McKenna, the Sharks will have Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini, Sam Dickenson, Michael Misa, and either Stenberg or Reid on entry-level contracts next year. Corey Pronman of The Athletic had Reid ranked as the number one draft prospect in March. It’s probably more likely that the Sharks take Reid second overall, and if they add him to their young, exciting core, the Sharks may be building a dynasty right in front of our eyes.
I think the Leafs will take McKenna. Some of you may have your own opinions about it, including his altercation earlier this year. In my eyes, he’s good enough that it almost makes me want him more if I were a GM, and he’ll be a nice replacement for Mitch Marner. If you’re a Leafs fan, you’re hoping he’ll be in the blue and white for a long time and help the Leafs to a championship.
