Auston Matthews is on pace for a 42-goal, 78-point season, a clear step back from his 69-goal campaign just two seasons ago. Is Auston Matthews falling off at 28, or are people just exaggerating the decline?
The Olympics:
As most of you know, Auston Matthews was recently named the captain of Team USA for the Olympics. He has received an obscene amount of criticism from fans about this, and the media’s main narrative right now centres on Matthews and his “fall from grace.” Despite this criticism, Matthews just led the Americans to their first gold medal since 1980.
He finished the tournament with three goals and four assists in six games, tying with Jack Hughes for the second-most points on Team USA. He was fantastic all tournament, especially in the final. His defensive presence was felt, but so was his offence.
Playing without Marner
Potentially the biggest storyline heading into this season was how Matthews would perform without his sidekick, Mitch Marner. A common narrative was that Matthews was only good because of Marner’s elite passing ability and that Matthews would fall off a cliff after Marner left for Vegas. Although that seemed to be the case at the beginning of the season, Matthews eventually adjusted, scoring at a 56-goal, 97-point pace in January (and that’s including a stretch where he scored only 1 goal in 5 games to end the month).
That doesn’t seem incredibly impressive on its own, but when you factor in the fact that his linemates were Bobby McMann and Max Domi, it becomes clear that Matthews played a fantastic month of hockey. Although he has been slumping recently, he is still playing at the same level that he has been playing at since the Christmas break. The lack of goals can be attributed to bad luck more than anything else. Despite the slow start to the season, Matthews adjusted to playing without Mitch Marner and is now back to playing at an elite level once again.
Playing hurt
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that Matthews has been playing injured for the past two seasons. Some people may deny it or just call it an excuse, but the drop from 69 goals to 32 goals in just one season proves that he has been dealing with something.
Matthews is very cryptic about his injury status, but the common guess is that he has been dealing with back injuries for the past two years. Whatever the injury is, it has clearly been hindering him greatly. Every year, his max shot velocity and skating speed continue to go down; you can pinpoint the exact moment where Matthews’ play dropped off due to injury.
Recently, he has truly looked like his old self again, but we cannot count on that being the case because of Matthews injury history. It seems like there’s a new problem every year, and when he’s playing well, it feels like it’s too good to be true. There are some signs that he is finally getting over this injury, but chances are it is still going to linger, potentially for the rest of his career.
Craig Berube’s issues
In my opinion, the hiring of Craig Berube has been the biggest factor in Matthews “fall-off.” He treats Matthews as if he’s Phillip Danault, not a 69-goal scorer who has won 3 Rocket Richard trophies and a Hart before turning 28. His defensive zone starts have gone up substantially. His defensive zone usage before and after Berube, as well as his defensive zone usage compared to other top forwards in the league, is not reminiscent of an offensive superstar. But that’s what Matthews is.
It is absolutely ridiculous that the best goal scorer in the entire league is top five in shot blocks. Not only is it a huge injury risk, but it also shows that he is being utilized as if he were Patrice Bergeron, not Auston Matthews. The hiring of Craig Berube was detrimental to Auston Matthews’ production. He is still an elite player, but his usage is hindering him greatly.
Is Matthews done?
After going over all of these factors, can we confidently say that Auston Matthews is washed at 28? The short answer is no, the generational goal scorer still has a lot left in the tank. The true question is, will the Leafs be able to unlock the real Auston Matthews, or will we see him become a 40-goal, 75-point player for the last few years of his contract?
The Leafs absolutely need to put him in a position to succeed; they need to hire a coach who actually plays Auston Matthews like the generational goal scorer he is. They need to find a player that actually works with him, and if they can’t do that, they need to play him with William Nylander. Nearly every other top player has great linemates; Matthews is being put in a position to fail by his team.
Some steps need to be taken, but I am confident that Papi will become a top-10, maybe even top-five player in this league again. 69 goals may be a bit unrealistic, but I believe that if the Leafs play their cards right, they can get at least another 60-goal season out of him. The 28-year-old superstar isn’t done just yet.
Excellent opinion piece! A well written and enjoyable read. Congrats!
Are you on glue?! Matthews is 28, not 26 and on the verge of been a has been 30 when his contract is up. It sure wasn’t him who led the USA to victory in OT. He is no Crosby or McDavid as almost every person in the world could tell you. Matthews has proven he does well with others besides Marner so that’s a foolish conversation. In fact, Domi is looking way better than he is by playing with Matthews lately! Conversely, Marner has not got the points this year that he used to get with Matthews. 58 in 57 is nowhere near 102 in 81. About a 25% difference! So, ya, Marner rode off Matthews to do the scoring and Matthews is a one trick pony really who isn’t in the same league as some others. Matthews, all of a sudden, weeks before the Olympics seemed to put out twice the effort, whereas he was MIA for the first ~40 games which is the single biggest factor in why the Leafs will probably not make the playoffs. Everyone should thank Matthews while he gets paid 13.25 mil/y. Matthews’ injury last year disappeared a few weeks before the 4 Nations. Matthews MIA this year switched to double the effort and success a few weeks before the Olympics, genius. Quite the coincidence, isn’t it?!! Being cryptic would allow someone to play coincidental games, wouldn’t it?! Again, coincidentally, the injuries don’t bother him during the 4 Nations or Olympics two years in a row. We can agree that Matthews seldom plays near a full 82 games, not near! Do you think maybe Matthews has changed his game, knowing he can’t ride off being the big goal scorer anymore or do you not think?!! That maybe you shouldn’t blame Berube with your lack of knowledge on the situation? Matthews is not worth near 13.25, that much I can say. Been hearing for 10 years Rielly needs the right partner. Turns out Rielly is the problem. Been hearing for 10 years Matthews needs the right coach. The problem is Matthews.