The Toronto Maple Leafs have officially finished with the fifth-worst record in the NHL, and all hopes will be that they retain a top-five pick in this year’s NHL Draft. But what if they land the first-overall selection?
After finishing 28th in the league, the Leafs have the fifth-best odds in the draft lottery, which is 8.5% at landing the first-overall pick. This increases to 8.6% for second-overall and stands at 24.5% to stay exactly where they are.
There is the daunting fact that the Leafs have a 44% chance of dropping to sixth overall and a 14.2% chance of slipping further to seventh overall, both scenarios that would see the Boston Bruins take the pick from Toronto.
Despite the odds being stacked against the Leafs, that hasn’t stopped fans from contemplating the unlikely but supremely enticing proposition of lucking out and landing the top pick in the draft.
What, then, could the Leafs consider doing if that scenario were to come to fruition?
Take Gavin McKenna
The player who entered the 2025–26 season expected to be the top player available in the draft is the player who is still viewed that way: Gavin McKenna.
The 18-year-old from Whitehorse, Yukon, has dominated at every level of hockey so far in his career. He was taken by the Medicine Hat Tigers first overall in the 2022 WHL Prospects Draft and was never less than a point-per-game in Canadian major junior.
Seventy-nine goals and 244 points in 133 regular-season games later, along with a flurry of individual accolades as well as a WHL title, McKenna made the jump to college hockey with Penn State. Despite playing against older players, McKenna has continued to flourish, with 15 goals and 51 points in 35 games.
He was named to the Big Ten All-Rookie Team as well as Second Team All-Big Ten, alongside teammate defenceman Jackson Smith. This also saw McKenna play a starring role on Team Canada’s World Juniors team, where he had 14 points (four goals, 10 assists) in seven games en route to a bronze medal.
It’s expected that McKenna, a left winger, could make the jump to the NHL immediately as an 18-year-old, just like Macklin Celebrini did after being drafted first overall, and out of college, by the San Jose Sharks.
Celebrini’s success should make the Toronto Maple Leafs salivate at the thought of adding potentially another elite forward to the roster, filling the hole left by Mitch Marner’s departure a year ago at a fraction of the cost.
McKenna could easily play a top-six role on the Leafs, allowing the team’s next general manager the opportunity to spend money elsewhere in the lineup to strengthen and get the team back in the cup contender conversation.
If the Leafs have the top pick, can they really afford to pass on potentially a franchise-level talent?
Trade back
While the Toronto Maple Leafs could certainly make the easiest pick and land McKenna, the new general manager may prefer to acquire more assets to look to land multiple prospects for the long-term project in Toronto.
If the Leafs decided to offer up the first-overall pick, every team in the league, except potentially whoever lands second overall, would be falling over themselves to move up and get McKenna.
He could be viewed as the perfect piece for a contender to tip them over the edge. He could be seen as a franchise difference maker who can help a team such as Seattle add some star power. McKenna is a highly valued asset in the NHL and could easily fetch a huge asking price.
Multiple picks and even existing prospects could be on offer if the Toronto Maple Leafs decide that bolstering the prospect pool depth is more valuable in the long term.
It’s a difficult decision that some fans may be on board with, especially as defence appears to be a trending area that many hope the team can address.
Shock the league
That’s where a potential shock could come into play. McKenna and Ivar Stenberg are the stud forward prospects in this year’s class, but there are many enticing defensive players whom the Leafs could fall in love with.
Keaton Verhoeff (University of North Dakota, NCAA), Chase Reid (Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, OHL), Carson Carels (Prince George Cougars, WHL), and Alberts Smits (Jukurit, SM-Liiga) are all viewed as highly rated defencemen who could be ready to go far earlier than is typically expected at the position.
The Leafs’ defensive group is aging, and the collective inability to move the puck is an issue that needs to be changed this offseason and beyond. Landing one of these players could go a long way to improving the core group and giving the Leafs a future top-pairing player.
Perhaps the Leafs feel that their best avenue is to stand pat and select the best defenceman, in their mind, and address a serious need while potentially adding a player who they feel could be the next Matthew Schaefer.
This move would undoubtedly send shockwaves through the league, as McKenna and Stenberg would suddenly be available to a team that wouldn’t have expected the opportunity. Teams in second and third place may then consider what approach they need to take, especially if such a move were to happen.
It’s highly unlikely the Toronto Maple Leafs will land a pick in the top three, let alone the first-overall selection, but if the unimaginable were to happen, it would be fascinating to see which direction the team takes.
A third option if the Leafs were to win the 1st overall pick could be to package the pick with a goalie and a forward or a defenceman for a later 1st round pick and a top six forward. Preferably a right shooting forward. McKenna is a left shooting, left winger and that is the one area where the Leafs are not in desperate need.
In this draft, there will be NHL calibre defenders available well into the 2nd round. The Leafs could take a huge step back to being a playoff team with a creative use of the 1st overall pick.