After Auston Matthews put the Toronto Maple Leafs on his back to tie their series with the Boston Bruins 1–1, the Leafs are in a pretty good situation heading home for Games 3 and 4.
But there’s a clear weakness in Toronto’s game right now: The middle-six.
The top line of Matthews, Max Domi, and Tyler Bertuzzi is dominating, and the fourth line is doing great too. Both groups are hemming the Bruins in the offensive zone, producing shots and chances, and keeping the puck out of Toronto’s net.
But Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies are getting caved in as the second line. Pontus Holmberg, Nicholas Robertson, and Calle Jarnkrok aren’t getting much ice time, as Sheldon Keefe doesn’t exactly trust them to play responsibly.
Obviously, William Nylander will slot in somewhere in this group (presumably for Robertson) if he’s healthy. Nylander, who finished with 40 goals and 98 points in the regular season, will be a massive boost when he comes back. But even without him, the two players making almost $11M each haven’t been good enough.
Will Keefe load up the second line to get Marner and Tavares going? Will he put Nylander with Holmberg and Jarnkrok to add depth to the forward group? We’ll have to see. Either way, the second and third lines need fixing.
Matthew Knies has been getting beat up
Sending a 21-year-old rookie out with Marner and Tavares is maybe a bit much against a team like the Bruins. Knies is getting absolutely bodied out there, taking massive hits, giving the puck away in dangerous areas, and generally not helping a line that’s getting dominated so far.
He played great in the regular season, and will one day be a fantastic power forward for the Leafs, but he should probably be sheltered once Nylander gets back.
So far, in over 21 minutes at 5v5, the Leafs own a 36.5% expected goal share with Knies on the ice according to Natural Stat Trick. In Game 2, that number was 19.7%. That’s simply not good enough, especially when he’s playing with such talented guys.
Now, placing the blame on the guy still on his entry-level contract instead of the two players making close to $11M isn’t fair. They should be the ones carrying play and getting most of the criticism (we’ll get to that), but honestly for Knies safety, he should be moved down the lineup. He’s getting torn to shreds.
Marner has been a ghost
The hate train on Mitch Marner has been out of control after two games, and while it’s obviously too much, that doesn’t mean his play has been good enough. Not even close.
The clip of Marner avoiding a battle like the plague is a good summary of his play so far. He looks terrified of contact, something we’ve seen in the postseason before. At 5v5 in Game 2, Marner was on the ice for just three Leafs scoring chances and went -1.
He’s been terrible, flat out. But Marner was a point-per-game guy in the playoffs last season, and can only go up from here. There’s no reason to believe he can’t turn this thing around. Maybe all he needs is a nice play or two to get his confidence back.
Game 2 also saw him move up to play with Matthews more, which is an idea I love. Marner can play 24 minutes a night, so when an offensive faceoff gives Keefe a chance to load up a line, he should.
And if Nylander comes back, maybe the second line becomes Nylander-Tavares-Marner. If that’s the case, surely they start humming. The Matthews line is getting the toughest matchups, and those three should be able to dominate lesser competition.
Even if Nylander ends up on the third line, moving up Jarnkrok would help take the defensive load off of Marner and would help give the line a guy who won’t be on his backside half the time.
Right now, the second line is an anchor. If they can become an asset, the Leafs should dominate.
The Leafs have been mediocre, but are in a great spot
Toronto has been far from their best. The defence has been suspect, the special teams have been horrible, and half of their forward lines aren’t working.
But a 1–1 series, now with home-ice advantage, puts them in a fantastic position.
Boston looks extremely beatable. Brad Marchand has been a no-show, the team in general has been pretty poor at 5v5, and now Andrew Peeke is hurt for the series. A full team effort the rest of the way from the Leafs should end up with a series win.
It’s super early, but the situation bodes well for a Leafs postseason run. Matthews has proved he can carry his own line, and the fourth line looks great. If the other highest-paid guys can play better—and they should—the Leafs should be moving on to Round 2.
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