There is blood in the water in Calgary. After months of speculation, the Flames seem primed to move on from their veteran netminder Jacob Markstrom, and the goalie looks to be heading to brighter pastures. On 32 Thoughts: The Podcast, Elliotte Friedman mentioned that there is a strong fit with New Jersey, but that the Leafs are right in the middle of this one.
After yet another painful first round exit, it may be time to look at acquiring a legit starting goalie. Let’s explore this idea.
Does this even make sense for the Leafs?
There are a myriad of reasons why the Leafs would be interested in the Swedish goalie beyond just that GM Brad Treliving has a long history of being in on everyone. The team has just one NHL goalie under contract for next season, and that’s Joseph Woll, and has about $19M in cap room available. Woll is a great netminder, but his injury history makes him hard to rely on.
Year after year, it has become clear that the Leafs are relying on elite offence to win games and praying for average goaltending. The Florida Panthers and New York Rangers being the two teams in the Eastern Conference Finals shows the immense need for good goaltending in the playoffs.
Markstrom has been very good for the Flames over the last few years, and while his numbers did drop off after the trade deadline, the Flames were a very weak team, having lost their two best defencemen in Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev to the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars respectively. He did his best to hold down the fort in Calgary, but there is only so much a goalie can do without any defence.
Markstrom has two years left on his deal, which pays him $6M a season. It’s far less than the $10M that the league’s best goalies make currently, and with few elite goalies coming on the market this year, Markstrom may be the one that makes the most sense for the Leafs.
The risk with him is age. Markstrom is now 34, and will be 36 when his contract expires. He has played very heavy minutes over his career, running the show in Vancouver and then Calgary over the last number of years. He is a goalie who can play 55 to 60 games a season as a legit starter and does well when he gets games in.
This may actually work well for the Leafs in a weird way. Woll is 25, and has shown he is ready for the NHL on a more full-time basis this year. Having Markstrom at the end of his career may be the mentor that the young goalie needs to establish himself as a starting goalie in the NHL in a couple years, and as Markstrom slows down, Woll then takes the net over as his own. Markstrom is able to transition from the starter to the backup if Woll continues to be as good as he has been, and if he struggles next season, Markstrom is able to play the majority of games.
However, there are also other goalies on the market this summer. Juuse Saros is expected to be available this summer from the Nashville Predators, and is younger than Markstrom by a number of years. There is a chance that the Boston Bruins make Jeremy Swayman‘s RFA rights available this summer, but that doesn’t seem likely.
There is also the regular carousel of backups, 1A, and 1B goalies that come onto the market each summer that the Leafs could take a chance on. However, in terms of actual quality, Saros and Markstrom are the two that are being discussed.
While Saros is a great name, the cost for him is going to be higher than for Markstrom, and he would undoubtedly block Woll from developing into a starter. Despite having just one year left on his current contract, if he is traded to Toronto, the Leafs will want to sign him to his next deal to prevent him from going to free agency, and this would make it harder to give the net to Woll down the line.
What would it cost?
This is where the challenge comes in. The price for Markstrom appears to be a first round pick and a top prospect or player. The easier part of this deal would be moving the 23rd overall pick to Calgary. This is not expected to be a very deep draft, and while having another prospect is always good, it’s not as good as having a starting goalie.
From the Flames’ end, 23rd overall is fine, but if other teams like New Jersey or Ottawa are offering a higher pick, the Leafs will need to sweeten the pot a bit more. Perhaps they throw in a later round pick, like one of their three fifth round picks to try and even it out.
Then comes the prospect or player. The Leafs are not moving Matthew Knies in this deal, and nor should they. They also should not touch Easton Cowan or Fraser Minten in this deal. Those three players are far too good to be touched alongside a first to Calgary for a player like Markstrom.
It’s possible the Flames are interested in the RFA signing rights to Nicholas Robertson or Timothy Liljegren as part of the Markstrom deal. However, both are legit NHLers and are very much known quantities across the league. The Flames are looking for a re-tool on the fly, and their last few trades have acquired younger players who they feel can slot into their top-six in a year or two. Neither is probably going to do it for Calgary.
The names the Flames are probably looking at are someone like Topi Niemela, the Leafs’ third round pick from 2020. He’s coming off his first AHL season, where the blueliner had 39 points in 68 games with the Marlies. A steep price to pay for an aging goalie.
Then there’s Roni Hirvonen, the Finnish second round pick from 2020, who had 13 points in an injury-shortened 37 game season in the AHL. This was his first year in the league, and the winger is still a couple years away from being an NHLer, if he makes it at all. This may be more palatable.
William Villeneuve is a name the Flames could call about. The defence partner of Flames prospect Jeremie Poirier in junior, Villeneuve 25 points in 54 games for the Marlies and was quite good as a balanced two-way blueliner. He hasn’t peaked yet at the AHL level, but still has another season or two before he’s an NHLer. The Flames need right-shot defencemen, and Villeneuve would be a fit for them.
The other name that makes a ton of sense for what Calgary needs is Nick Abruzzese. The former Harvard Crimson was a teammate of their prospect Matthew Coronato, and is in the right age and stage for what the Flames need. Abruzzese is a tweener right now, probably too good for the AHL but not yet ready for full-time NHL minutes. He had 48 points this year in the AHL, but did not see any NHL ice this year. Could Calgary see more of him than the Leafs do? He may be worth trading away.
Is it worth it?
The Leafs desperately need a goaltender this summer, and Markstrom seems to fit the need perfectly on paper. While the thought of giving up a first round pick is a tough pill to swallow, it probably makes more sense to acquire a valuable piece to help the team with the current core than to add pieces that may be NHL-ready in three seasons.
The big question is what this is going to cost in terms of additional players or prospects. The thought of trading away Cowan, Minten, or another A-tier prospect is hard to swallow along with that first round pick, but if the price is right, this is a deal that Treliving should be all over.
