The Toronto Maple Leafs goaltending has been a hot-button issue, lacking a true starter since the days of Frederik Andersen, and an elite option since Ed Belfour.
Unfortunately for the Leafs, there does not appear to be an obvious fix to either of these issues in free agency.
Fortunately for the Leafs, Joseph Woll is a low-cost, high-upside option. Woll has continued to show growth, and when healthy is a strong enough option that the team will feel good about their chances in any game. The bad news is that Woll has continued to miss time with various injuries. Even those most bullish on Woll’s ability must admit to concerns regarding his availability.
As such, should the Leafs choose to get aggressive in upgrading their goaltending in free agency there are options that could play behind Woll to varying degrees. There are no clear cut upgrades available, but there are options for second or third string goalies to insulate Woll and prospects Dennis Hildeby and Artur Akhtyamov. Experience and reliability might be the priorities in doing so appropriately. Though by no means an exhaustive list, let’s take a look at some of the names that are scheduled to hit the open market.
Hopeful tandem starters
These three likely represent the top of this free agent class. All three might be capable of starting over 40 NHL games next season, likely the only free agents who can claim such. Samsonov is known to the Leafs, authoring a mercurial tenure with the team. Despite his inconsistencies, Samsonov might well be the best option on the market, but the Leafs might have lost interest altogether.
Kahkonen has a similar profile, around the same age as Samsonov. He has had brief stints behind capable NHL defence, spending most of his career on the rebuilding San Jose Sharks. As such his career statistics do not inspire much confidence, but his age, experience, and past workload make him a standout in this UFA class. It is a gamble, but he might have more success behind a team with a more cohesive defensive structure.
Talbot is far more experienced, perhaps even too much so. There might be some concerns about how his play will hold up in the years ahead, but Talbot can provide a reasonable level in the right situation. Talbot has struggled behind weaker defensive teams in the past, but has shown much more behind better defensive teams. His best years might well be behind him, but his experience and steadiness might be attractive to the Leafs.
Tandem backups
This tier consists of high-end backups. Nedeljkovic has some experience as a starter, and is coming off of a good season with the Pittsburgh Penguins that saw him take hold of the starting job down the stretch. At one point Nedeljkovic might have been thought of as a good young starter, thriving behind a strong Carolina Hurricanes team, but he had struggled to regain anything close to that form until this season.
Laurent Brossoit was back on the Winnipeg Jets last season, putting up good results as the backup behind Connor Hellebuyck. He has bounced around the league a bit, proving he can find success beyond Winnipeg, but has never had to carry a starter’s workload. Brossoit might have a chance to do so successfully, but the risk will be higher if he is able to command term and cap dollars.
Stalock had a career year behind the Florida Panthers last season, though the Panthers still seemed reluctant to turn to him too often. Despite having a comfortable cushion in the playoff race and a strong defensive structure, the Panthers only managed to get Stalock 28 games. It was not a flash in the pan, as Stalock played well behind a rebuilding Anaheim Ducks team in years past, but Stalock might not be ready for the workload that would be required of him for the Leafs.
Lankinen seems more of a true backup than a tandem backup, think roughly 30 games instead of 40 games, but has inspired some confidence among NHL fans. His services might be up for grabs, depending on how the Nashville Predators decide to handle the procession from Juuse Saros to Yaroslav Askarov.
Betting on growth
Hitting UFA status at 25, Prosvetov is a bit younger than most of the other options here, something that might be appealing in its own right. A Prosvetov signing would require the belief that he can keep improving. He had his best season as a pro last year, posting his strongest performance in the AHL and a career high 11 NHL games. Having appeared in 24 NHL games over the past three seasons, Prosvetov has only been called upon as a third stringer, filling in for injuries and absences.
Other goalies might become available through going unqualified as RFAs, or as free agents from other leagues around the world. These options would cost less and have a higher upside than some of the more established UFA options, but are riskier. Given Woll’s injury history, a backup of this ilk would not be the Leafs only move, but could be part of a reasonable organizational depth. Prosvetov is a bit more experienced than Dennis Hildeby, for example, and might save Hildeby from being forced into NHL action.
Running it back
Finally, the Leafs will likely try to replicate their plan to have three capable NHL goalies on their roster, and do have a pair of expiring UFAs that could be perfect. Martin Jones and Matt Murray have a lot of experience, might be just as good as any goalie on this list on an emergency basis, and might be quite affordable in comparison. Jones, for example, had his contract structure in a way to facilitate his passing through waivers to start the season. The Leafs greatly appreciated his contributions last year, and will likely be looking to reprise the strategy in some way.
Murray is an interesting case, with two Stanley Cup rings and a long injury history of his own. It seems as if Murray is back to full health, and there simply are not many goalies with his upside in this free agent class. In recent years, namely struggling as a member of the Ottawa Senators, some of the shine has come off Murray, but some context might be revealing.
In retrospect, the Senators have routinely made life difficult for their goalies in the Brady Tkachuk era, many of whom have posted much better results after leaving the team. A big issue was also Murray’s cap hit, even with the Senators retaining a part of it. On a shorter, more team friendly cap hit, there is little not to like about Murray being on the Leafs next season outside the combined injury concerns of both he and Woll. Their health cannot be guaranteed, but on skill and experience alone a depth chart of Woll, Murray, and Jones could be quite effective and affordable.
A trade seems unlikely
The Leafs clearly need to add to their goaltending depth chart, if not to supplant Woll as the starter then to support him, or even adequately cover for his absence. There are options in free agency, and it is likely that a few in this class will go on to outperform their contracts.
With that being said, the Leafs don’t have much cap space to work with, and finding a way to build an affordable tandem behind Woll for this season will help them get through the bottleneck of the John Tavares contract. While trading for an established starter is appealing, it would cost in terms of assets and cap dollars. For the Leafs, the cap cost might stop them from splurging on an extra forward or defenceman.
Ideally, the Leafs would be able to buy promising prospects Dennis Hildeby and Artur Akhtyamov a few more seasons in the AHL, letting them gain experience and arrive on their own timelines. There are some options rumoured to be on trade market, such as Filip Gustavsson, Jacob Markstrom, Linus Ullmark, and Juuse Saros, but chances are that the Leafs are not quite as desperate in this area as they are elsewhere in their lineup, let alone compared to other teams who do not have a goalie of Woll’s quality.
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