Ilya Samsonov’s wild turnaround last season was commendable, to say the least. His career could have been over after being waived in December, but instead he worked himself back to being the starter in Game 1 of the playoffs for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Yet still, he was replaced by Joseph Woll during Game 4 and only played Game 7 because Woll was hurt.
It’ll be very interesting to see what kind of contract Samsonov gets this summer. Will a team believe he’s a starter? A 1B? He said he wants term on his next deal, but will anyone give it to him?
One thing’s for sure, I doubt he’ll be back in the blue and white. Whether Joseph Woll is the starter or someone else is signed, I can’t see Samsonov returning. But never say never, I guess.
Looking back at his Leafs career
There was a point during the 2022–23 season when Samsonov looked like a long-term solution to the Leafs goaltending problems. As badly as Kyle Dubas wanted Matt Murray to be the guy, Samsonov outplayed him and took the net by midseason. Murray couldn’t stay healthy, but it didn’t really matter. Samsonov had won the job.
Of all goalies with at least 40 games played in 2022–23, Samsonov was sixth in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, with 0.44. He trailed only Linus Ullmark (who won the Vezina), Juuse Saros, Ilya Sorokin, Connor Hellebuyck, and Igor Shesterkin. He was in elite company.
And he played well enough to finally get the Leafs a Round 1 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning, sometimes looking unstoppable in the series before getting hurt and handing the net to Woll in Round 2. But the way Woll played opened some eyes.
In nine playoff games, Samosonov saved -1.3 goals above expected. In Woll’s four, he saved 0.8 above expected. A small sample, sure, but those numbers matched the eye test. In 2023–24, he was also replaced in the playoffs, but not because of injury.
Last season was almost unbelievable for the Russian netminder. Starting the season basically as bad as possible, Samsonov was waived in late December. Luckily for the Leafs, he went unclaimed, because he came back two weeks later and played lights out the rest of the season.
And with Joseph Woll suffering a high ankle sprain late in the year, Samsonov’s success was crucial for the team that was trying to find its identity heading into the postseason.
But he was once again replaced in the playoffs after some shaky play against the Bruins. He wasn’t terrible, but he gave up bad goals in crucial spots and the net was given to Woll in the middle of Game 4. Samsonov came back for Game 7, but gave up two weak ones and the season was over.
Looking back at his two-year career in Toronto, the word I would use to describe Samsonov is unpredictable. And I think his style of play is the biggest reason why. When goalies play the way Samsonov does, it’s just hard to find any consistency. Some nights he can look invincible, and the next he’ll give up four bad ones.
If we are to take Brad Treliving’s end-of-season press conference as any indication, Samsonov’s time as a Leaf is probably over. But there could still be some upside if he’s brought back.
The pros of bringing him back
The contract will be small
Samsonov says he wants term and stability on his next deal, but unfortunately for him, I doubt that happens. After such an up-and-down year—and career for the most part—I think he’s due for another prove-it contract.
And that could be valuable to the Leafs if they don’t want to spend big assets or cash for a goalie.
Joseph Woll has proven, when he’s healthy, to be an excellent goalie. Health is the concern, but if he can put together a year where he plays 50 games, and Samsonov would only have to play around 30, getting Sammy on a cheap deal could be a better option than some other backups.
It’s all about value. Samsonov shouldn’t be a 1A guy, but he can be a solid 1B. If he plays like he did just two years ago, on a backup kind of contract, the Leafs would be getting a steal.
Samsonov made $3.55M last year, and did not play himself into a raise. If Toronto can get him on a contract that starts with a two, the upside would be pretty high. Do I see it happening? Probably not. But it’s a bad year for UFA goalies and Samsonov is one of the better netminders hitting the open market.
Honestly, that’s about it
There’s no point in trying to come up with other justifications for bringing him back. The Leafs front office isn’t comfortable with him being a starter, nor should they be. Even if he wanted to come back on a league minimum contract, I’m not sure Treliving would even sign him.
The only way signing Samsonov works is if he’s cheap, accepts a backup role, and plays like he did two years ago. The chances of all three happening aren’t very high.
The cons
His style of play
One of the biggest knocks on Samsonov’s game is simply his style. While Woll looks big in the net, and wastes no movement, Samsonov can look small and flies around the crease like a madman.
He makes some ridiculous saves he should have no business making when he’s on. He can look out of position one second, then push across the net and make a wild save the next. It’s what made him look good against Tampa in the playoffs last year, where he made several miraculous saves using his athleticism to swing around the crease.
But this style is a double-edged sword. When he can’t fly across the crease, or has trouble tracking the puck, he struggles.
I often use the word “swimming” to describe Sammy. He is out of position a lot, and has to “swim” around his crease to make saves. He ends up on his stomach more than he should, and will challenge shooters to a point where a simple pass leaves him nowhere near the net, not ready to make a save.
When compared to a goalie like Woll, it’s night and day. Woll always looks square and in position, because he doesn’t drift or challenge too much. He’s calm and consistent with his movements.
Samsonov is the complete opposite. When he gets beat, a lot of the time he’s on the wrong side of the net or six feet outside the blue paint. His movements are sporadic and wild, which greatly lowers his floor as a goalie.
And when he is off his game, you can tell. Shots from the point with no screen somehow make it past him because he’s either not ready or fighting the puck. This happened too many times before he was waived, where he simply wasn’t in a ready position when a shot was taken.
Samsonov is an openly emotional guy, something I commend him for. But when it affects his play, he becomes a much worse version of himself.
I don’t want to say the 2022–23 year was a fluke, because I think Samsonov can still put up good numbers if everything goes right for him, but it’ll be tough for him to consistently perform with how he plays.
Going into the offseason, I would think one thing Treliving wants is stability in net. Woll can’t really give you that until he proves he can stay healthy, and compounding that with bringing back Samsonov would bring the opposite of stability.
There are other options on the trade market
While the UFA class of goalies is lacklustre, there are plenty of options for Treliving on the trade market.
Jacob Markstrom, Juuse Saros, John Gibson, and possibly Linus Ullmark (I doubt Boston would trade with Toronto, but you never know) have all been in trade rumours and will continue to be into the summer.
Each comes with his own concerns and question marks, but the upside is worlds ahead of Samsonov.
Markstrom is 36, but had a Vezina-like season until the Calgary Flames fell out of the playoff picture. He has a proven track record of being a top-end starter, and if the Flames retained he could be under team control for two more seasons at just $3M.
Saros is in the last year of his deal, but he is an elite starter and would instantly solve the Leafs goaltending problem next year. Signing him long-term would be tough, and the acquisition cost would be huge, but he’s the best goalie theoretically available, at least in my opinion.
Gibson has been on the trade block for what seems like forever, and has had some rough seasons, but he’s playing on a terrible team. He was great in the past, and would bring a lot of upside for probably a lower acquisition cost.
And while Ullmark is probably not an option, a good enough package could force Boston’s hand.
All of these guys would make the Leafs goaltending situation miles better.
It all comes down to what Treliving is willing to do to get his guy, but a trade for a proven starter is a very enticing option.
The risk of a collapse
Whoever signs Sammy will have to accept the risk of him falling off the face of the earth again. His comeback was remarkable last season, but he’ll wear the reputation of a fragile goalie for the rest of his career.
He was the worst goalie in the league until January of last year, and that’s scary. It’s hard to rely on him to be even a backup with the risk of that happening again.
For his sake, I really hope it never happens again. Samsonov is an emotional, honest, funny guy who I want to see succeed. But he could be back in the AHL or in Europe very quickly if things go downhill.
Thoughts and predictions
Of all Toronto’s UFAs, I think Samsonov is the most likely to be wearing another sweater next year. I just don’t see a scenario where he comes back.
I think he’ll need to sign another one-year prove-it deal, probably around $3M, to a team rebuilding or pushing for the playoffs. A contender won’t trust him, at least not until he proves he can be consistent.
With the lack of quality options hitting free agency, though, we’ll see.
Leaf Nation will always appreciate Samsonov’s honesty and humour, being one of the most sincere players in the league. It hurt watching him struggle, and it seems like he puts the weight of the world on his own shoulders.
I really hope he succeeds wherever he goes, but it’s time for everyone to move on. The Leafs, vying for a Cup, need more stability in net and I think Treliving knows that.
Maybe I’m completely wrong about all of this, but I’d be willing to bet a lot I’m not. If he does leave Toronto, Samsonov will (embarrassingly) be remembered as the guy who finally got the Leafs a playoff round win after 19 years.
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