With the 2023–24 season in the books, the time has officially come to look towards 2024–25. First on the docket is the 2024 NHL Draft, where the Leafs will add a new draft class to their prospect pipeline. Slated to pick at 23rd overall, any prospect the Leafs select in this year’s draft will be at least a year away, if not a couple more. Still, the hope is the Leafs are able to add some significant prospects.
With change to the prospect pool inevitable, let’s take a brief overview of the prospects in the Leafs system already, before the draft.
S Tier
Forwards: W Easton Cowan
As it stands, Cowan is probably among the top 32 prospects league-wide. An OHL championship and MVP, alongside his Memorial Cup performance and long point streak leave Cowan with little to prove in junior. Though it would not be an indictment of his ability to return for a final junior season, chances are that Cowan will be pushing for an NHL spot. Expecting a top six player off the hop is ambitious, but Cowan seems to be well on his way to becoming a core player for the Leafs by the time his rookie deal expires.
A Tier
The performance of these players will be tracked and monitored throughout the season. A rough patch won’t be the end of the world for these prospects either. Prime AHL players to track, and many fans will begin to get hopeful. At the same time, these prospects might also hold some value in trade talks.
Forwards: C Fraser Minten
Goalies: Dennis Hildeby, Artur Akhtyamov
Minten is not quite at the level of Cowan, and might be best served starting the year in the AHL. He should at least be able to survive as an AHL regular as a rookie, but it will be when he starts thriving as a top AHL player that a call-up should be considered. The mind and the frame are present, but there is lots of time for Minten to add pro-level strength and explosiveness before he will be at full effectiveness.
Hildeby and Akhtyamov are legitimately strong goalie prospects league-wide. Both have slowly increased their exposure to professional leagues, and both triumphed as their team’s best option this past season. Hildeby did so in the better league and in closer proximity as the AHL Marlies starter, but Akhtyamov was outstanding as MVP of the VHL playoffs and VHL goalie of the year. While there are better prospects across the NHL, their age and resumes are spectacular and worthy of this high appraisal.
B Tier
These players are worth knowing for Leaf fans, but likely hold only so much value or viability in trade talks with other teams.
Forwards: F Ryan Tverberg, W Roni Hirvonen, W Nikita Grebyonkin
Defencemen: LD Cade Webber, RD Topi Niemela, LD Mikko Kokkonen, LD Noah Chadwick
Tverberg has been an interesting project for the Leafs. Drafted as a somewhat raw player, he has kept adding to his game and showing clear progress each season. Predicting an NHL job out of camp might be ambitious in what should be a crowded Leafs forward group, but with more progress this summer it won’t take long for Tverberg to begin generating call-up conversations.
It’s been tough for Hirvonen since being drafted, injured for most of the first half of last season. He’s been a useful AHL player, but more is required before NHL consideration. A play-connecting winger, Hirvonen might have to specialize in certain areas to have a path.
Grebyonkin is a bit younger, and likely won’t be near as NHL-ready. An AHL rookie, Grebyonkin earning a regular spot in the lineup will be the first step. As an offensive talent, Grebyonkin will have to score his way into any call-up consideration over the next two years.
Cade Webber might quickly shoot up this list. A defensive specialist, measuring Webber’s progress will have more to do with ice time than production. With a strong start to his professional career, Webber could quickly become one of the Marlies leading defenders and a potential Leafs call-up by the end of the season.
Both Topi Niemela and Mikko Kokkonen have been important players for the Marlies already. More senior players, such as William Lagesson and Marshall Rifai, might have taken call-up spots last season, but Niemela and Kokkonen might not be denied this season. Niemela does have some upside as a passer, but these defencemen can only earn NHL games through their defensive consistency and quality.
Chadwick is younger than those in this tier, and further from a finished product. Still, after a promising season in the WHL, Chadwick has already outperformed his draft slot. It might be safe to say that he won’t play an NHL game over the next two seasons, but with continued growth, he might gain some momentum in the public eye over that time.
C Tier
These players should not be counted out as potential NHLers one day, but it is still a distance until that becomes a realistic possibility. If these players can string together some improvements over the next couple years they might find themselves further up such lists. For now, there will be very few outside of Leaf Nation tracking these players.
Forwards: F Nick Moldenhauer, F Jacob Quillan, W Ty Voit, W Vieti Miettinen, F Joe Miller, F Braeden Kressler
Defencemen: RD William Villeneuve
Quillan, Voit, and Villeneuve will likely play for the Marlies next season. Voit and Villeneuve will look to earn more usage and effectiveness than they achieved last year. For Voit this means offensive production, and Quillan, more known for his defence, will have to hit the ground running as a rookie and earn a regular penalty killing role.
Kressler is signed but might be hard-pressed to find regular AHL time. Miller and Moldenhauer will look to be more impactful in the NCAA. Miettinen will look to produce well in the Liiga. Theoretically, these players might be able to contribute in the AHL in a couple years after big seasons in 2024–25.
Honourable mentions
Forwards: F Nick Abruzzese, W Alex Steeves
Abruzzese and Steeves are experienced enough that they might find their way into more NHL games next season, but their chances of cracking the Leafs roster is dimming. There’s no shame in maxing out as a top six AHL forward. Abruzzese and Steeves can still be an important part of the Leafs program, helping to maximize their younger teammates with strong play, and setting the bar for what is required to earn a call-up.
The overall system
As a playoff team for eight straight seasons, it’s no surprise the Leafs system isn’t filled with top-end talent. But there is a good chunk of prospects ready to make an impact on the NHL club in the next couple years, including in net.
With so few high picks, Toronto has done a pretty fine job finding value in the draft to not leave the cupboards completely empty, and they’ll look to continue this trend with the 23rd pick on Friday.
Hopefully, the Leafs find another late-round gem like they did with Cowan to help the team within a couple years.
