The free agent frenzy this year wasn’t as splashy as previous years, owing mainly to a class with few big names and fewer surprise moves. The main free agent target was obviously Mitch Marner, but the “surprise” that he wasn’t re-signing in Toronto had been basically telegraphed for months. In fact, it came out after he inked his 8-year, $96M contract in Vegas that this move might have been on his mind since at least the 4 Nations. Credit to the Golden Knights (or maybe more accurately, Nevada state tax), they didn’t massively overpay the winger while still giving him a roughly $2M raise in post-tax income.
Obviously, with Vegas gaining a star player, there had to be a team that lost said player, and in this case, it was the Leafs. As detailed in many pieces across Toronto, many fans view this as a fortunate event rather than an unfortunate one. I am of the same mindset, but on paper, this does make the team worse.
Brad Treliving did well, in my opinion, to at least recoup some assets, trading Marner’s contract for centreman Nicolas Roy. Roy put up 41 points two seasons ago and is coming off a 31-point season, both in Vegas. The Leafs also traded for Matias Maccelli and signed Michael Pezzetta, bolstering their forward depth. Maccelli put up 57 points two years ago in Arizona, but is coming off a disappointing 18-point season where he lost favour with the coaching staff. Pezzetta will provide depth for almost no cost.
No big moves
Aside from those few moves, the Leafs had a relatively quiet start to free agency. They mainly focused on cleaning up their house, inking deals with John Tavares, Matthew Knies, and Steven Lorentz. All three of these contracts were tidy pieces of business. JT took a significant hometown discount, cementing his beloved legacy in the city. Knies is locked up for term at a reasonable number, and Lorentz is exactly the type of player that thrives in Toronto.
The story of Leafs free agency is one of inaction, rather than action. They weren’t really in on any of the big names, and with many players choosing to re-sign rather than test the market, the remaining free agents commanded a premium. I’d argue that the Leafs did quite well to steer clear of these potential landmines and are in a good position going forward.
Aaron Ekblad, Sam Bennett, and Brad Marchand all re-signed in Florida, taking team-friendly deals and creating what looks like a potential dynasty in the Sunshine State. I, for one, am very excited to see 43-year-old Brad Marchand lace up his skates in 2031.
Ivan Provorov took Columbus to the cleaners, inking a deal to stay a Blue Jacket at roughly twice his market value according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s model. Brock Boeser, Brock Nelson, Claude Giroux, and Matt Duchene also all stayed with their teams.
After losing Vladislav Gavrikov to the Rangers, the LA Kings signed Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin to exorbitant deals. One Twitter user actually had the scoop on the contract negotiations between Ceci’s agent and Ken Holland:
Less is more
All this is to say that I don’t think there were actually many opportunities for the Leafs to get markedly better via signings. The Leafs were never really in on Nikolaj Ehlers, who signed a six-year, $8.5M AAV contract in Carolina.
In their grades for each team’s performance during free agency, The Athletic marked the Leafs as a C. I think a large part of this grading comes from losing the best player available in Mitch Marner. But given that the cost was baked in, as the player was not re-signing, I’d argue that the Leafs did quite well.
They avoided many of the pitfalls of other teams, looking for either short-term help or big splashy numbers. They added some solid pieces and retained even more important ones. Most importantly, they kept bullets in reserve.
There are still holes on this team, most notably in the top-six forwards and maybe some defensive depth. However, Treliving and his team still have options with contracts that can move, such as Kampf and Jarnkrok. Sure, losing Marner makes you worse on paper, but I’m very excited for this new era of Leafs hockey.
We are aligned. Cannot wait to see this team sans MM.