The Toronto Maple Leafs have had a rough go thus far in the 2025–26 season, currently sitting at a 21-15-7 record, good for fifth in the Atlantic Division. And in the early days of 2026, the new year has not brought good news to the struggling Leafs, as defenceman Chris Tanev, who has only played in 11 games this season due to multiple injuries, may now have to undergo surgery in relation to a groin injury that has had him sidelined since Dec. 30, as reported by TSN.
While Tanev is just one cog in the Leafs’ system, a potential surgery could very well spell the end of the season for the 36-year-old veteran D-man, and while he is just one player, fans and teammates alike know just how important a piece he is not just to Toronto’s defence core, but to the team as a whole.
So with Tanev’s return in limbo, what would Tanev being out for the season mean for the Leafs?
By the numbers
From a statistical standpoint, we will need to look at Tanev’s totals from the 2024–25 season, as injuries have greatly hindered his amount of games played and impact for the team in this current season.
Tanev has never been an overly offensive defenceman, with his highest point total being 28 points in 82 games with the Calgary Flames back in 2021–22, but where Tanev truly shines is in his ability to block shots. And last season, Tanev put his body on the line in a big way, blocking 2.5 shots on average per game, the fifth-highest average in the league according to MoneyPuck. Then in the 2025 postseason, Tanev was arguably even more impressive, racking up 38 blocked shots in just 13 games, the seventh-best total in the league.
With the grit and grind that Tanev brought to the Leafs in his first year with the squad, he became a main catalyst for the team’s defensive identity, switching from being seen as relatively weak to one of the better and tougher groups in the NHL. Additionally, Tanev statistically had the most positive impact on games last season, with a plus-minus total of +31, the highest on the team.
What a no Tanev 2026 could mean
To truly understand what losing Tanev for the season could mean for the Leafs, we have to compare the team’s stats with him to those without him. Firstly, in terms of Tanev’s shot-blocking abilities, they would be quite missed. In 2023–24, the season before Tanev joined the Leafs, the team ranked 13th in the league in total blocked shots, then in 2024–25, Tanev’s first season in Toronto, the team jumped to fifth in the league during the regular season, but this season, with Tanev having played in limited games, the Leafs have fallen to 11th. Clearly, without Tanev in the lineup, the Leafs simply aren’t blocking or putting their bodies on the line with the same effectiveness.
With a failure to block shots may also come an inability to limit opponent goals, and unfortunately for the Leafs, not having Tanev has already been proven to lead to more opposing goals. In 2023–24, the Leafs allowed the 12th most goals in the league during the regular season with 261 total, but in Tanev’s first season in Toronto in 2024–25, the team performed significantly better, allowing just 229 goals, tied for the 24th highest total in the NHL. However, with a lack of Tanev thus far, the team has fallen from grace in a big way, allowing 140 goals in just 43 games.
Buying at the deadline?
So, if those stats without Tanev are anything to go off of, the Leafs may be in for an even tougher rest of the season if their prized defenceman has to potentially sit out the rest of the year. It is clear that without Tanev, the team simply isn’t as tough and can’t defend their net nearly as well. The Leafs’ best hope right now is that the worry is for nothing and Tanev will be back before the 2026 playoffs, but if he isn’t, the end result of their season may come down to a trade deadline gamble on a temporary replacement on the backend, and as we know, deadline deals can come with huge risk.
For now, fans can look on the bright side that team captain Auston Matthews seems back to form, but even an elite Matthews may not be a bandage large enough to put the team in contention through a potential Tanev-less second half of the season.
*43 games, not 443 😉 Tanev’s shot blocking gets talked about but he is very good at lots such as battling for the puck, battling players, clearing the front, defending, a first pass to get it out of their end. He’s a star defenseman! Most Leafs deadline deals over the past 10 years have not seemed to do much. They have not been worth doing.