A soft schedule heading into the Olympic break might offer hope for some. For others, picking up wins might only serve to muddy the waters. In short, the Leafs recent struggles have given life to a long-since familiar friend, otherwise known as Tank Nation. There are some complicating factors, including the top-five protection on the Leafs first sent to the Boston Bruins last season, and of course, the draft lottery.
There is no guarantee that the Leafs will have the opportunity to keep their pick. Either way, large portions of the fan base will begin to turn their focus towards the hope offered by a potential high-end pick. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the likelihood and implications of the Leafs tanking.
Bottom feeders
For now, the Leafs find themselves stranded, equidistant from a wild-card spot and a top-five pick. There are teams that are having worse seasons, while others might have motivation to try to build momentum heading into next season.
Unfortunately, it is not so simple. The Leafs might finish in the bottom five and be bumped down the draft order after the lottery. At the same time, there is a distinctly smaller possibility that the Leafs win the lottery and are able to select one of the top prospects in the class.
As simple as things are up until this point, it gets more complicated thanks to the stipulations on the 2026 first that the Boston Bruins own, and the 2027 first that the Philadelphia Flyers own. If the Leafs do keep their own pick in either of those seasons, their 2028 first would be in play. The bill will come due.
In some sense, getting out of this mess will be its own reward, but the quickest fix might still be to acquire a top talent this season. Not only will that player be ready to make an impact sooner, at least in theory, but it could help the Leafs return to playoff relevance, and thus ease the burden of missing the picks in the first place.
From a bigger scope, the Leafs overextended themselves. GM Brad Treliving went all in on the core, one last hurrah, hoping his star power would be retained. The salary cap squeeze meant that for years, the Leafs were desperate for value contributors. Now the equation has changed, and the Leafs are instead focusing on adding talent.
Sellers, for what?
With the status of their first-round picks so complex, the concept of selling is complicated as well. The need for youth is obvious, but the team will likely look to rebound next season. It only benefits the Leafs to be bad once in the next three seasons, or during Auston Matthews’ current contract, which lasts two seasons after this one.
It makes sense to the team to divest from the present, but only so much. The Leafs could sell players for picks, but the highest they could really acquire are late firsts. Perhaps the Leafs could get lucky, receiving a future first that has limited protection, hoping an older team falls short as they have. Regardless, outside of a top-five pick, it will take time for draftees to develop into meaningful contributors.
Perhaps, then, the Leafs will look to target drafted prospects in trades. This is a balancing act, as teams are unlikely to sell off blue-chip prospects that they truly love. This, combined with the calibre of players the Leafs might part with, means gambling on second-tier prospects or those who have otherwise fallen out of favour. A franchise cornerstone will be hard to come by, and the Leafs will have to rely on their scouts being ahead of the scouts from other teams.
The third route is more likely in the offseason: trading for current NHLers. Trading for these players is unlikely at the deadline, save for players who might act as salary counterbalances. Theoretically, if the Leafs acquire picks at the deadline, those picks might later be flipped for these types of players. Again, scouting will be huge here, as the Leafs must identify players who might thrive with a change of scenery.
Wish list
It might be difficult to pinpoint a single piece that would improve the team the most. For those looking for hope in the future, it is youth that is most important. Of course, the Leafs prospects will keep progressing, but as it stands, they will need a lot of help to yield tangible reinforcements. Be it a potential star or two, or a glut of talent coming of age, the potential for growth is often the simplest path towards hope.
The Leafs are not without some talent, as Easton Cowan and Ben Danford appear to be solid bets to be key factors during Auston Matthews’ current contract. If the Leafs had similar level prospects at left defence and centre, there would be meaningful hope for a brighter future.
One might suggest the Leafs need to acquire their best defenceman. On a theoretical level, there might be an argument that a solid, deep, and balanced blueline would be enough to win a Stanley Cup. The margins are thin in such a case, and the Leafs should aim higher. The Leafs do have a lot of talented veterans to support, but this blueline might need a true elite option to stack up against the league’s best.
Meanwhile, having a centre who could help push John Tavares for minutes at some point soon would be a huge boost as well. The unfortunate part is that the Leafs might have had a great option for such a centre in Fraser Minten. Even if the Leafs author another draft hit as they did with Minten, the time lost in development likely falls outside of Matthews current contract.
The Leafs are, once again, filled with veteran talent at the moment. Still, Tavares can only keep up his current level of play for so long. The Leafs will have to think of succession plans to tread water, let alone to get ahead.
Recency
Regardless of who gets traded away at the deadline or who gets signed in the summer, the Leafs will need internal reinforcements to truly change their DNA. Without first-round picks in their next two drafts, finding a way to add meaningful young talent will be a challenge requiring some daring.
The benefit the Leafs have at centre is that Matthews takes a lot of pressure off with star qualities. This is another reason losing Minten hurts, as stylistically, he is somewhat of a foil to Matthews. Minten might not have the offensive upside of a top-line centre, but he is able to contribute all over the ice.
A top defenceman and an important centre are valuable to their play alone, but they also help to reshape the identity of a team. The aptitudes and attitudes of these players would be crucial in the stated goals to remake the Leafs DNA. Perhaps Cowan and Danford will be able to help in this area, but the Leafs will need more.
While it may sound too optimistic, every season, there are players available at lower costs who might fit the bill. At times, young NHLers are underperforming for their current teams. Bowen Byram and Trevor Zegras were both struggling, finding new life in new locales. Both were gambles, no doubt, but their trade cost reflected that.
If the Leafs were going to acquire a top talent (1st line RW), they should have done it way before now but apparently it couldn’t be done. Until the deadline, they would need to overpay. Unfortunately, Roy is not enough better than who the Leafs have had in previous years for 3rd center. The Leafs could need to replace 3rd and 4th center for next year! They still need a 1st RW and who knows what else. Really, while I hope a couple of more years can be salvaged, the Leafs have had their time and they totally blew it, mostly because of Shanahan and Dubas. Too bad the Leafs never seem to find lower cost, underperforming players who do well except rejects on waivers (Stecher)!