With the regular season coming to a close and the Toronto Maple Leafs navigating several injuries, there is still some time to experiment with the lineup. While there are players expected to be in full health lineup still missing from action, the return of Mitch Marner offered a new wrinkle into what to expect from the Leafs come playoff time.
Health has been elusive for the Leafs this season, forcing the coaching staff to mix and match throughout the lineup. It should be expected that full health remains elusive through the attrition of the playoffs, but it is still worthwhile to ponder what the Leafs lineup might look like at full strength.
Ideal forward lines for Toronto
Toronto has a wealth of forwards to mix and match, but there are ways that Sheldon Keefe can optimise his roster.
The offensive first line
As mentioned, the biggest change to the status quo came when Marner returned from injury, the coaching staff electing to separate Marner from his longtime linemate Auston Matthews. A huge factor in this decision has been the play of Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi, as the chippy duo have excelled together on Matthews’ wings.
The archetypes are not different from those the Leafs have opted for on Matthews’ line in the past, with Bertuzzi as a physical net-front presence and Domi as a pass-happy playmaker. While Bertuzzi and Domi both provide a physical edge, they also have a history of strong playoff performances which should help Matthews have his strongest playoff performance to date.
The defensively responsible second line
This leaves Marner to join the second line, centred by John Tavares. Bobby McMann has become a mainstay on Tavares’ wing, providing a degree of speed and physicality that is greatly appreciated. Regardless of their final linemate, Tavares and McMann have formed the Leafs’ checking line, drawing the toughest defensive assignments. Marner is a perfect addition to this duo, adding effectiveness to both sides of the ice.
A responsible defensive player in his own right, Marner completes the checking prowess of the line, while his offensive talent helps the group control possession and transition play, weaponizing his shoot-first linemates with his sublime passing ability. William Nylander did well providing this offensive punch to the group, thanks to his equally impressive abilities in transition, yet Marner is the better fit offensively and defensively.
A powerful third line
The biggest contention with this lineup is putting Nylander on the third line amidst a career season. On the surface, this might seem a confounding decision, but there are several factors that mitigate any perceived slight against Nylander. With a prominent role on both special teams, Nylander will still receive a lot of icetime.
With Matthews’ line likely to draw the most defensive attention from opponents, and Tavares’ line handling the top defensive assignments, Nylander should have favourable matchups. On top of this, Nylander is better suited to create his own offence than either Matthews or Marner, and has been the better playoff performer of the three.
This third line is the most in flux of the Leafs lineup. Matthew Knies has clearly separated himself from Nick Robertson on the wings opposite Nylander. Both Knies and Robertson provide some offence, though Knies seems a far better stylistic fit as a bigger, more physical player who can provide a net-front presence.
For now, Pontus Holmberg finds himself as the centre, providing a defensive conscience to the line with his meticulous positioning. Though both Nylander and Domi might be able to play centre, having a more defensively-oriented player is likely the best course of action. It is quite possible that Calle Jarnkrok will replace Holmberg when he returns to the lineup. Jarnkrok was fantastic in a checking role alongside McMann and Tavares, but his value as a centre is not one the Leafs can afford to ignore.
A prototypical fourth line
The fourth line is fairly set, housing a trio of specialists. David Kampf and Connor Dewar are locks to be in the lineup at full health as the top penalty-killing forwards. Meanwhile, Ryan Reaves brings an element that no other player in the Leafs system does. Now playing his best hockey as a Leaf, there is little doubt that Reaves will start in the playoff lineup. Given the talent on the top three lines, having a fourth line of players who understand and embrace their role is key.
Leafs projected line combinations at full health
Bertuzzi — Matthews — Domi
McMann — Tavares — Marner
Knies — Jarnkrok — Nylander
Dewar — Kampf — Reaves
Extras: Holmberg, Robertson, Gregor
Finding the Leafs’ ideal defensive pairings
The Leafs’ defence is equally in flux, riddled with injuries. With most of the trade deadline additions coming on defence, the group has had very few looks with anything close to full health. At the very least, the concerted effort to add length and strength to the blueline seems to have paid off, with most of the Leafs more tenured defenders playing better with a physical partner alongside.
Building the three pairings
This makes it difficult to project how the Leafs might elect to lineup, or even which six defencemen will be in the lineup. Naturally, there are some locks, as Morgan Rielly and T.J. Brodie will man the left side, while Jake McCabe and Ilya Lyubushkin will be on the right.
The inside track for the final spot on the right side belongs to a couple of offensive leaning right shots, Timothy Liljegren and Conor Timmins, as the main power play options behind Rielly. While GM Brad Treliving famously stated a willingness to add “snot” to the Leafs lineup, there was also an admission that the team wanted to add some offence to the back end, evidenced by the John Klingberg signing.
Still, the decision is likely to be either/or when it comes to Liljegren and Timmins. Both have had their ups and downs, and Liljegren has been the longer-tenured and more available, but Timmins has continued to improve defensively, adding more physicality to his game of late.
There is another option, though, as Joel Edmundson does have some experience playing on the right, his weak side. This might allow the Leafs to keep Simon Benoit in the lineup, potentially keeping the very effective pairing of Benoit/McCabe together. Upon joining the Leafs, Edmundson seemed to replace Benoit in the lineup outright. This leaves Mark Giordano as the most likely regular to be left on the outside looking in.
Toronto has options they should use
While finding the best six defencemen is a task on its own, making pairings between them compounds the mental gymnastics. Take for example Ilya Lyubushkin, hardly thought of as an elite player in his own right, yet seems to get the most out of his defence partners atop the lineup, recently with both Rielly or Brodie. There are also a number of left shots with experience playing on the right side to varying levels of success, including McCabe, Brodie, and Edmundson. Finally, there is the element of current injuries as both Edmundson and Liljegren are out.
The choice might come down to whether to prioritise a second power play option or size and physicality. The Leafs scarcely use their second power play unit, and theoretically, Brodie and/or McCabe could reasonably fill these options. With the struggling power play it might even be worth getting more experimental, perhaps with Marner acting as the top power play option on a five-forward unit.
Leafs projected pairings at full health
Rielly — Lyubushkin
Brodie — Edmundson
Benoit — McCabe
Extras: Liljegren, Timmins, Giordano
Getting playoff ready
The Leafs are still playing for home-ice advantage as they are within striking distance of the Florida Panthers, but they have the affordance to experiment in their final games to get their ideal roster set for the playoffs.
We’ll see how things unfold for Toronto over the next couple of weeks soon enough.
