Nicholas Robertson looks like an odd man out on the Toronto Maple Leafs playoff roster—at least early on. Even with his scoring touch, Sheldon Keefe doesn’t trust him at all defensively, and with so many wingers on the roster, he’ll need to prove he deserves a shot.
That’s the biggest problem with Robertson’s game: the defence. In the regular season, a point producer who cheats for offence can get by. In the playoffs, one bad turnover or missed assignment can ruin a team’s whole season.
Keefe has sent Robertson out for defensive zone faceoffs on just 4% of his shifts according to MoneyPuck. And when you watch him in his own zone, it’s not hard to see why.
But what has killed the Leafs in playoffs past? Scoring. Robertson should be slotted in if the Leafs can’t generate scoring for a game or two. And make no mistake, Robertson can score.
Let’s take a look at how his season has gone, what he’s good at, and what he needs to improve on if he wants to be an NHL regular.
Robertson is a pure scorer
It’s been his M.O. since junior hockey—Robertson has a special talent for putting the puck in the net. In his last season in the OHL, he potted 55 goals in 46 games. He has 27 goals in 60 career AHL contests.
He’s shown flashes with the Leafs. I remember his first game last year, against the Dallas Stars, where he scored two including the overtime winner. It looked like the Leafs had their next top-six guy who could play with the elite talent up front.
But he didn’t score once in 14 more appearances, then got hurt, ending his season.
This year has been a lot different. He’s shown a lot more consistency, scoring 13 times in 52 games while seeing just over 11 minutes of ice time a game. Keefe has actually had him in the lineup more than not, but with a healthy lineup, he’s fighting for playing time.
Because he only plays 11 minutes a night, his totals can be a bit deceptive. Thirteen goals in 52 games doesn’t seem great, but on a per 60-minute basis, Robertson is the Leafs’ second-best scorer at 5v5 according to MoneyPuck. Auston Matthews is first at 1.77 goals per 60, then Robertson is ahead of everyone else with 1.31.
Just watching him, you can tell he’s a natural scorer. A lot like Matthews, he knows where to be in the offensive zone to give himself the best chance to score. Robertson will drift into open lanes and is aware of defensive sticks that could get in his way.
He also has a wicked shot, giving him great chances off the rush where he can fool goalies from a distance. Again like Matthews, he’ll shoot five-hole a lot, which either goes in or sets up a netminder for the next shot.
On the power play, his one-timer is an asset. It’s unfortunate he’ll basically never get a chance on PP1 because of the star power the Leafs have up front, but he can still use the one-timer off the rush (which he does quite a bit).
If the Leafs find themselves down in a series or have any trouble scoring, Robertson should be the first guy subbed into the lineup. The kid can score, and he’s finally proved it this year.
What Robertson can do to get in the lineup
Robertson’s lines tend to get hemmed in their own zone for long stretches, no matter who his linemates are. Once the puck gets in, it’s hard for him to make an impact in getting it out.
At just 5’9”, this will always be tough for him. He’s tried playing “bigger” in the past, but got thrown around and hurt.
Matthews and Mitch Marner are two of the best defensive forwards in the game, but go about it different ways. Matthew’s stick-checking is second to none, and Marner’s instincts and coverages are top-notch.
Robertson needs to improve on both. His skating is good enough, but he has a hard time winning puck battles around the boards and loses his man quite a bit. He’s still at a positive expected goals percentage according to Natural Stat Trick, but the Leafs give up 2.51 expected goals per 60 when he’s on the ice at 5v5.
A couple of games ago, Keefe said he was deploying Robertson (and Matthew Knies) in tougher spots to help them grow. I love this strategy, but it’s obviously not something they can do in the playoffs.
The problem for Robertson is the lineup construction. To be successful, he needs to be on an offensive line that can avoid the defensive zone. There isn’t really a spot like that on the Leafs.
He’s not part of the top-six, and not part of a checking fourth line. If he’s on the third line, Keefe will have to deploy Matthews or Marner more in the defensive zone, something he won’t want to do.
Robertson is still only 22 and has missed a ton of time due to injury. But his scoring won’t be able to make up for his defensive lapses, especially in Toronto. To gain Keefe’s trust, he’s gotta prove he can hold his own defensively.
A glimpse into the future
It’s been a bit of a joke all year, but Robertson seems to always score after coming back from a scratch.
Maybe it’s just a coincidence, or maybe he gets some extra motivation watching from upstairs. But it could help Toronto a ton in the postseason.
The Leafs’ biggest problem in the playoffs for the last seven years has been scoring when it matters. In elimination games since 2017, they’ve scored just 2.1 goals a game.
In the last three years, they’ve played four elimination games and scored just six times. With so much star power in the forward group, it’s pretty embarrassing this keeps happening, but it does.
Whether Keefe trusts him defensively or not, he might be forced to use Robertson if the Leafs can’t find offence. It’s up to Robertson to force Keefe to keep him in the lineup.
If the pattern stays the same, and Robertson plays well and scores after being held out, he could be a useful weapon for the Leafs’ postseason run.
